2022 World Juniors: Thoughts on Team USA's COVID-related forfeit, where things go from here
The latest on what happened and what comes next for Team USA
The 2022 World Junior Championship ground to a stark, but hopefully only temporary halt Tuesday morning when the IIHF announced that the previously-scheduled game between USA and Switzerland was canceled and the U.S. had to forfeit. Two American players tested positive for COVID-19, which triggered a mandatory period of isolation for the entire team and staff.
I wrote about the news as it broke in this story for DailyFaceoff.com, but also wanted to connect with my subscribers and share a few more details as I learned them over the course of Tuesday.
According to TSN’s Bob McKenzie and my own sources as well, one goaltender and one forward were among the players that tested positive for Team USA.
The cancelled game resulted in a forfeit to Switzerland, which goes down as a 1-0 loss. However, now the focus turns to whether or not the team will be able to continue in their next game. Team USA is scheduled to play Sweden at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. There is going to be a lot of work done between now and then on the testing front to try and make that game happen.
I have been told that the U.S. team has been retested, but the results are not yet known. McKenzie reported that all players will take an additional test in the morning as well with expedited results returned prior to the game. He also noted that each player will have to have two negative tests to be cleared to play in the game. If there are multiple positive tests in the U.S. cohort beyond the players that already tested positive, there’s a chance Wednesday’s game will be cancelled and USA forced to forfeit that game, too.
It is also my understanding that if players test positive a second time, they could be subject to Canada’s current health guidelines, which includes 10 days of isolation. So we’re not just talking about missing games here. Though the CDC just adjusted its recommendation to five days of isolation in the U.S., that is not the case in Canada at this time. A negative test for those two players, however, could suggest the previous tests were false positives, which improves the team’s outlook for the remainder of the tournament. It’s all still up in the air, but that is the most optimistic of the scenarios.
Essentially, what the U.S. is dealing with right now is a moving target. It is my understanding that the two players that tested positive are asymptomatic and that no one else in the traveling party is exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19.
However, given the ever-changing situation with coronavirus, if those players are indeed positive, there’s a chance, or probably more accurately a likelihood there will be more positive tests. The omicron variant of the coronavirus has been reported to be more transmissible than any previous variant of the virus.
The fact that players are not in a completely isolated bubble, as they were during the last WJC, made positive tests within the tournament cohort a very strong possibility, if not a certainty.
Positive tests had already happened during the pre-tournament when one member of Finland — forward Roby Järventie — tested positive upon arrival but had enough time to isolate and rejoin the tournament. No other Finnish players tested positive during that time and the team was cleared to play. Swiss captain Simon Knak tested positive and was knocked out of the tournament as a result due to the 10-day isolation period. Additionally, the Swiss team had its pre-tournament game canceled and had its entire traveling party in isolation for two days. Another player tested positive from the Austrian contingent as well. Austria was doubly lucky as they managed to get cleared out of quarantine in time for their opening game against Finland on the second day of the tournament.
It should be noted that all U.S. players were fully vaccinated as was required for entry into Canada. Additionally, it is understood — at least at this point — that the omicron variant typically does not manifest symptoms as severely as previous iterations in fully-vaccinated people who become infected. That’s the good news for the health and safety of the players.
The bad news for the hockey side, however, is timing. The U.S. was scheduled for back-to-back games starting Tuesday. They also are due to play Sweden at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday in what would have been a critical game for both teams.
I have reached out for clarity on the protocol the IIHF has for this situation and what the next steps ultimately will be, but did not get an immediate response. McKenzie’s reporting on this is solid, though, as always.
The risks associated with hosting this tournament have been known, but it’s only been about a month of omicron running wild to increase the level of risk and create a shifting dynamic in how the tournament would operate. This current tournament situation is a lot different from what happened at last year’s World Juniors.
At the 2020 IIHF World Juniors, the entire tournament was played inside a tight bubble. There was no contact with the outside world by the players. Pretty much everyone around them was in strict protocol. That allowed the tournament to isolate individual positive tests and let everyone else test out. You may recall that Germany was forced to play the first portion of the tournament shorthanded as positive cases and some close contacts were put in quarantine. The players that tested positive arrived positive. After that, the tournament managed to go on with zero additional positive tests within the cohort. It was a pretty remarkable feat at the time.
While the players are doing their best to stay away from the general public, all teams are staying in hotels that they’re sharing with the general public. Rooms have been sold to people not associated with the tournament or going through the same rigorous protocol. On top of that, the stadiums are allowing fans into the building so long as they are fully vaccinated. Capacity has been capped at 50% as well, but as we’ve continued to learn more about coronavirus, airborne transmission is a distinct possibility, especially with omicron and even if those carrying it are vaccinated.
If the goal of the tournament was to have zero positive tests as they did a year ago, it was probably wishful thinking. However, the tournament would not have happened at all if the IIHF and Hockey Canada were unable to come to an agreement on health and safety protocols with the provincial and federal government to bring a few hundred people from across the globe into Edmonton and Red Deer.
That was the compromise that had to be made and now the debate will continue on what the right way to handle this new variant is. But that’s for another time and certainly not for a hockey newsletter.
So here’s some insight into how things go next from a hockey standpoint. The hope is that the U.S. will be re-evaluated and able to play against Sweden on Wednesday. If that happens, that’s good news and we’ll get a great prliminary-round game between two very good teams.
If it does not happen and the U.S. is forced to forfeit another game, it does not outright sink their chances. They’ll still have one preliminary-round game against Russia on New Year’s Eve, assuming the U.S. clears protocol.
Having beaten Slovakia in the opener, they still have three points. Slovakia would need to get more than three points over its next two games — one against Russia and another against the Swiss — to push the U.S. into a situation where they would not be able to compete for a medal.
There’s also the potential scenario that each of Slovakia, Switzerland and the U.S. each finish with three points in the standings. In that case, the first tie-breaker would be goal-differential in games involving all three teams. USA is even given the 1-0 loss for the forfeit and the 3-2 win over Slovakia, Switzerland is currently +1 and Slovakia is -1. I believe Slovakia would have to beat the Swiss by three or more goals to knock out the U.S. in that particular scenario to get the tie-breaker. If Slovakia fails to get at least three points in any game, their tournament will be over.
It’s probably not worth letting yourself get twisted into a pretzel thinking about that, but I just did for you, so let me be the weird one and play out the hypotheticals, I guess.
The IIHF announced earlier this week that there would be no teams relegated and no relegation round will be played, so at least there is no risk of that. The decision on that was made because of the growing uncertainty of potential positive cases and here we are.
There’s a lot of hypotheticals, but the one I hope the U.S. is most able to avoid is that there are more than the two positive cases on Team USA. In that scenario, it likely ends their tournament and earns those that are positive an extended stay in Canada without a chance to compete.
I very much wanted to write about a game tonight. I’m sad that it won’t happen, but I also understand that there’s a lot of moving parts to this situation and even if you do everything right and are super careful, things can turn quickly. In the event that there are updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter and check out my work at DailyFaceoff.com. My hope is that we’ll have a game against Sweden to cover tomorrow.
Until then, stay tuned and stay safe, everyone.