Cale Makar, Adam Fox and the growing NCAA impact on NHL blue lines; lessons for Owen Power
More young defensemen are jumping from the NCAA to the NHL and making an immediate impact
When the Norris Trophy finalists were announced Wednesday morning, a signal was sent to the rest of the NHL — the new wave is here. Cale Makar and Adam Fox, each in just their second full NHL seasons, joined perennial Norris contender Victor Hedman as finalists for the top individual prize for an NHL defenseman.
Makar and Fox are just two seasons removed from playing NCAA hockey — Makar at UMass and Fox at Harvard. They were both Hobey Hat Trick finalists at the end of the 2018-19 seasons, with Makar taking the top individual prize in college hockey.
The following season, both Makar and Fox were in the Calder Trophy conversation. Makar won the award, followed by Vancouver Canucks rookie Quinn Hughes and Fox finished fourth in the voting. Fox’s former Harvard teammate John Marino finished eighth.
These last two seasons have been an outright showcase for college defensemen in the NHL. The four most productive defensemen under 24 in the NHL in terms of points per game are recent college players. Makar leads the way with 0.93 points per game over the last two seasons, Hughes is next at 0.75, Fox is at 0.71 and Zach Werenski checks in at 0.62. Charlie McAvoy ranks 10th in this category, giving recent NCAA blueliners half of the top 10 most productive young defensemen in the NHL right now.
There’s also one very important fact about each of those defensemen. They each played at least two years before signing NHL deals. All, except for Fox were first-round draft picks with plenty of interest in getting them under contract before they got that extra year, but seeing how much each changed over the course of one season and how prepared each was to play an immediate, substantial role for their respective teams is telling.
It’s hard to look at this current wave of NHL defensemen and the rookies that played this past season, plus the ones on the way, and not marvel at the job the NCAA has been doing in developing NHL star-caliber defensemen in recent years. These things can be cyclical, but we’re in the midst of one of the most impressive cycles I can remember of elite players choosing college hockey, staying more than one year and reaping the benefits so quickly after they’ve moved on.
Additionally, the paths chosen by the likes of Makar, Hughes, Fox, McAvoy and the others are going to lead to a lot of players following their example. Similar to how Jack Eichel was a leading force in stemming the flow of elite players eschewing the NCAA for the perceived quicker route by going to the CHL, these defensemen are showing that the patient approach to development, however difficult it may be, is the potential path to a more lucrative NHL career.
There’s no one-size-fits-all plan for players. Everyone has their own path and can make their own way, but the players choosing more development time over the chance at an immediate contract have been game-changers for them. There are very, very few players who can stay too long at one level without continuing to develop and get better.
Lessons for Owen Power?
Owen Power is likely to go No. 1 in this year’s draft. He can probably step into the NHL and hold his own, but if you are a team that has foresight and patience, how can you not want him to arrive extra ready? For Fox and Makar to go from a college junior and sophomore, respectively, to Norris Trophy finalists in two years, why would you think it not a good idea to do the same with Power?
Both Fox and Makar were drafted before they arrived on campus. Hughes, Werenski and McAvoy were drafted after their freshman seasons, like Power will be. We have heard so often from coaches and the players themselves that playing defense at the NHL level takes time to master. Unless, apparently, you’re one of the top NCAA players jumping right into the NHL.
All of the players listed above decided to take that one extra year (or two) instead of being the one and done. Here’s how their rookie years went:
Charlie McAvoy: 63 GP, 7-25—32, 22:08 TOI, All-Rookie Team, fifth in Calder voting
Zach Werenski: 78 GP, 11-36—47, 20:55 TOI, All-Rookie Team, third in Calder voting, received votes for Norris and NHL All-Star Teams
Quinn Hughes: 68 GP, 8-45—53, 21:53 TOI, All-Rookie Team, second in Calder voting, received votes for Norris and NHL All-Star Teams
Cale Makar: 57 GP, 12-38—50, 21:01 TOI, All-Rookie Team, won Calder, received votes for Norris (top 10) and NHL All-Star Teams (top six)
Adam Fox*: 70 GP, 8-34—42, 18:54 TOI, fourth in Calder voting
* Fox spent three years in the NCAA, while the others played two.
To provide a slight contrast, Noah Hanifin was selected higher than Werenski in the same draft year, as both entered college a year early. Hanifin immediately went to the NHL and had a solid rookie season, but nothing like the ones his peers had after entering the league at least one year post draft.
Hanifin appeared in 79 games, had 22 points and averaged 17:54 of ice time per game. He remains a serviceable top-four caliber defenseman, but hasn’t quite worked out the way he was expected to and not quite at the same level as his fellow recent collegians.
In the years since, one-and-done defensemen in the NCAA have been virtually non-existent, while the number of former NCAA defensemen making a relatively immediate positive impact with little to no time spent in the AHL is growing.
In terms of raw production, 12 of the top 30 defensemen under 24 in the NHL over the last two seasons were NCAA alumni. Most of them went directly to the NHL roster after signing their entry-level deals.
While I’ve used NCAA defensemen for the most part, I think Miro Heiskanen could also be a good case study, too, when teams consider what to do with Owen Power. Drafted in 2017, the Finnish blueliner signed his NHL deal, but was loaned back to Finland for another year of seasoning. He doubled his point production from the previous season, was a leader on Finland’s World Junior Championship entry, played in the Olympics and World Championship and entered the NHL as a bonafide top-four option.
In his rookie season, Heiskanen played in all 82 games, put up 33 points, averaged 23:07 per game, on the way to being named to the All-Rookie Team and finishing fourth in Calder voting. He was receiving Norris Trophy votes by his second season in the league.
Meanwhile, you can’t discount how either of the last two defensemen who went No. 1 overall played during their rookie seasons immediately following their draft. Aaron Ekblad won the Calder with 39 points in 81 games as an 18-year-old rookie, but injuries started to get in the way and it took him a while to re-establish himself as a top-level defenseman, which he was this year before getting injured again. Then there’s Rasmus Dahlin who had 84 points over his first two NHL seasons, finished third in Calder voting and made the all-rookie team and averaged over 21 minutes a game in his first year. However, this past season was cause for concern. Both of those players were younger than Power is now when they entered the league, too.
There’s no single right answer for what Power should do. But he does have a decision. He’s the one that ultimately can choose to go back to school for the extra year, take the beat and let himself be even more ready for the rigors of the NHL. A player has to have tremendous self-awareness and self-confidence to not simply jump at the first chance they get, and I think Power has both of those things. But I also couldn’t begrudge any player taking the opportunity if they themselves feel ready. I just think there are lessons from these other players who realized they had a chance to be not just ready, but ready to make an impact. It’s impossible to know for sure, and honestly too early to say for sure, but those decisions very well could have changed the trajectory of their entire careers.
The pressure on No. 1 picks to play right away is enormous, but I keep thinking that after this wild pandemic year, maybe 2021-22 is the year to take that extra beat and exercise a little patience in order to get the best possible end result in Years 1-3 of the entry-level contract.
It could be good business for both the player and the team in the end.
The Next Wave of NCAA defensemen coming soon
Not as many former NCAA defensemen made as big of an impact this season as first-year players as there was last year, but you could see some glimpses of what they bring to the table. K’Andre Miller had a very strong season with the New York Rangers, averaging over 21 minutes per game. As he gets more experience, we should start seeing his offensive numbers go up.
The Rangers also signed and immediately inserted into the lineup Zac Jones of UMass. He was a third-round draft pick in 2019, played two years at UMass, won a national title and then got into 10 games with the Rangers. He also just spent the last three weeks as the No. 1 defenseman for the bronze medal USA squad at the Men’s World Championship.
Cam York, who was one of the top defensemen in college hockey last season, also spent two full seasons in before signing with the Philadelphia Flyers. He got a couple of games in at the end of the season, but should be challenging for a roster spot next season.
Others like Wyatt Kalynuk, Ian Mitchell, Jack Rathbone and Matt Kiersted all got some run in the NHL this season. Zach Whitecloud became a top-four defenseman with the Vegas Golden Knights after a full two seasons of AHL experience following his being signed as a college free agent.
The Ottawa Senators are also eagerly awaiting the arrival of last year’s No. 5 pick Jake Sanderson. Though he had the chance to sign, he decided to stay for another year of college hockey. Judging by how it’s worked for the group above, it seems like a no-brainer, especially at a pro factory like North Dakota, where he really came on strong in the second half of last season.
I think Makar and Hughes set a standard for a lot of these guys, with Fox being a little different since he went to Harvard and those guys usually stay at least three years.
Now we’ll have to see what the top two NCAA-connected defense prospects will decide to do with Power being selected directly out of Michigan and Luke Hughes headed to Michigan after being picked out of the NTDP in the top 10 this year. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
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