Free Hockey Sense Newsletter: Men's Frozen Four preview; 2023 U.S. WJC staff named and more

Plus: Stonehill goes D1; 2022 NHL Draft spotlight on Sam Rinzel; More

Please enjoy this free newsletter ahead of the 2022 NCAA Men’s Frozen Four and consider subscribing to Hockey Sense with Chris Peters to get newsletter’s just like this one every week to your inbox. We’ll be switching gears to heavier 2022 NHL Draft coverage in the coming weeks, so don’t miss out!

The stage is set. The teams are in Boston and on Thursday evening, the final games of the men’s college hockey season will commence. I don’t think we could have asked for a better tournament so far — well, I could have done without some of the confusing goal reviews — and the final teams all have earned their way to this stage of the season with truly exceptional performances over the course of the 2021-22 campaign.

I’ll be in Boston for the semifinals, so I wanted to give you some insight into the things I’ll be tracking, which players I think can have the biggest impact on their respective teams and a few stray thoughts as we head into the final.

Also, for more Frozen Four preview content, please check out my team-by-team rundown on DailyFaceoff.com, and listen to this week’s episode of the Talking Hockey Sense podcast featuring friend of the program Brad Schlossman as we go in-depth on the Frozen Four.

The Matchups

Michigan vs. Denver, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2

A battle between two of the most skilled, offensive-minded teams in the country, this one may ultimately come down to which team can be the most disciplined defensively. I still think we’re going to see quite a few goals in this game. It might not be the runaway shootout that makes the 1980s feel awfully close, but there’s going to be chances for both sides.

Goaltending is under pressure in this game significantly. Denver’s Magnus Chrona (SJS) is the more experienced of the two netminders, but Erik Portillo (BUF) of Michigan has had the better season statistically. When both are on their game, they can be tough to beat, but both goalies may end up seeing one of the best offensive attacks they’ve gone up against all year long. Those two can be the difference for their team as goaltenders so often are, but the pressure is turned up quite a bit for each with their seasons on the line.

On the podcast this week, Schloss brought up how young Denver’s D corps is with a lot of freshmen and sophomores. They’re going to be put to the test in this game by a forward group that has incredible counter-attacking ability. Michigan is also fairly young on the back end, but both Owen Power (BUF) and Luke Hughes (NJD) have been among the best players in the country this season.

This game could come down to the wire, but my expectation is that we’re going to see some crazy goals, some great speed and an unbelievable game between two of hockey’s most tradition-rich programs.

Key Players

Matty Beniers, C, Michigan (SEA): While all of the skill and talent Michigan has will be a big key to their success, an ability to challenge the opposition on a shift-by-shift basis is going to be the tougher task. That’s what makes Beniers so important to Michigan’s overall title hopes. On top of being one of its best skill players, he’s also a bear to play against. He plays the game hard down low and defends exceptionally well. While he’s opened up his offensive game, his competitive drive and tenacity off the puck have never wavered. As much as Brendan Brisson’s (VGK) goal scoring, or Luke Hughes’s (NJD) transition ability can change the game in an instant, Beniers’s style can make the whole game difficult for the opposing team. In what will assuredly be the last games of his collegiate career, expect Beniers to leave it all out there.

Carter Savoie, LW, Denver (EDM): Bobby Brink (PHI) is the driver of all things offensive for the Pioneers, but Savoie may ultimately be the team’s most dangerous player because of his goal-scoring ability. There’s a chance Denver will be juggling lines and trying to find some balanced scoring. Savoie may not always be with Brink and Cole Guttman (TBL) as Denver tries to spread out their attack. If Savoie can drive things on his own, which he is certainly capable of, it opens up Denver’s lineup in a way that allows them to be even more competitive. They need to be tough to match up against and ensure that if Michigan successfully shuts down one line, they’re going to have two other lines that threaten them. Savoie’s shot is one of the best in the country as it is both quick and accurate. If he gets open looks, he has to convert.

Minnesota State vs. Minnesota, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

This game is so fun. A rematch from last years’ regionals where Minnesota State shut out Minnesota, this game should be a lot different. Minnesota is a different team and Minnesota State, quite frankly, is too. But this is still a battle of disparate styles.

The Mavericks have won from the net out. They defend exceptionally well and have one of college hockey’s greatest goaltenders in Dryden McKay to back them up if there’s a breakdown. The thing is, it’s been a long time since Minnesota State saw a team that can play as well in transition as Minnesota. If the Gophers can get their speed game going, there’s going to be problems for Minnesota State.

That said, the Mavericks are one of the most disciplined teams in the country. They don’t take a lot of penalties, but they still play a tough, heavy game. Every inch of ice is contested and the space is hard to come by in general. That’s going to force Minnesota to have to try to either get especially creative or they’re going to have to find ways to really push back and cut through the middle of the ice with some physicality.

Ben Meyers (UFA) has that push-back in him as does freshman Matt Knies (TOR) who has shrugged more opposing defenders off this season than I could manage to count. Meanwhile, Minnesota State counters with a very aggressive offensive attack led by the highly-skilled Nathan Smith (ARI) and Julian Napravnik (UFA). Those guys can score the pretty goals as easily as they do the gritty ones, but most of Minnesota State’s goals are going to have to come from below the dots and in the hard areas.

Whoever can win the small-area battles in this game is probably moving on. I think this will be a lower-scoring game that is as competitive as any we’ve seen in this tournament — which is saying something.

Key players

Nathan Smith, C, Minnesota State (ARI): No one is concerned about Minnesota State’s ability to defend. They’ve proven that they can shut down anyone with a few adjustments here or there. What is more difficult is scoring, especially when the team on the other side has so many weapons. The Mavericks don’t want to be in a game where they’re defending the whole time. Guys like Smith have the ability to open things up at the other end. He can keep Minnesota’s D honest and can can exploit them if they make mistakes. Smith is a great finisher, whether it’s making the right read and pass or shooting when he has the opening. He spots offense well and can create in one-on-one situations. We expect the defense to hold up, we expect Dryden McKay to hold up and we expect Smith to make a substantial impact on what is likely his last collegiate games.

Brock Faber, D, Minnesota (LAK): After leading Minnesota in minutes in the regional, expect Faber to play upwards of 27 minutes in this game if it ends in 60. He is the player that can match anyone in the country stride for stride and defend at an elite level. His endurance, his steadiness and his consistency are all key factors in what makes him successful. As Minnesota has to find a way to cut through the Mavericks’ layered defense, the Gophers have to ensure they’re not vulnerable at the other end. You always know what you’re going to get when Faber is on the ice and that’s going to be a nice security blanket for Bob Motzko. While Faber’s highest value is in defense, he showed in the regionals he can make things happen at the other end as well.

Storylines of note

Prospects? We got ‘em: The amount of draft picks on rosters of the participating teams is astronomically high for this time of year. There are 41 players with NHL draft rights still playing. There were only 18 last season. Draft picks do not always equal success in the college game. Minnesota State can still attest to that as they have just two NHL picks on their roster and they have as good a chance as any of the other teams to win it all.

However, more draft picks in the tournament at this stage give more people a reason to watch. NHL fans in the know about prospects should want to tune in for one of the best chances to see players their teams have rights to. The other thing about so many picks this season is that many of them are exceptional prospects.

The first-rounders on Michigan, but others like Brock Faber (LAK), Matthew Knies (TOR), Ben Meyers (UFA) and a whole bunch more on Minnesota; Nathan Smith (ARI) of Minnesota State; and Bobby Brink (PHI), Carter Savoie (EDM), Carter Mazur (DET) and a bunch more on Denver, offer some of the very best pro prospects in college hockey. It’s a tremendous showcase for the sport.

One of these teams is not like the others: And that’s one of the many reasons you’ve got to love college hockey. You can have all the prospects and pedigree and history, but there’s still a spot for a team that’s relatively new on the scene and does things a little differently. There’s a place for Minnesota State to find its niche and showcase the other side of college hockey.

As the oldest team among the four by average age, the Mavericks show how the playing field can be leveled by targeting a different segment of players. Minnesota State doesn’t always get the top end guys. They do occasionally nab players like Nathan Smith (ARI) who bring a high-end pro element to the roster. But mostly it’s guys that were overlooked or under-appreciated who have bought into a system, developed their games and thrived.

Mike Hastings deserves a ton of credit. Minnesota State may yet become a destination program for players because they win a whole bunch, the players get better and some of them get pro deals. This particular Minnesota State team may be the best of them all in Hastings’ tenure. Can they take the next step? And how far would a national championship go to solidifying the program as one of college hockey’s best?

Hobey’s here: All three players in the Hobey Hat Trick are playing in the Frozen Four, which is a pretty cool and fairly rare thing. While there was certainly some controversy over the selections, as Brad Schlossman and I detail on the Talking Hockey Sense podcast this week, there is still something special about three of the best players in the country playing on the biggest stage in college hockey.

Regardless of how the committee got there, Bobby Brink (PHI), Ben Meyers (UFA) and Dryden McKay (UFA) will be competing in the final weekend of the season. The Hobey will be awarded on Friday night and I can honestly say that I have no idea how it’s going to go. My pick would have been Devon Levi (BUF) and I also thought UMass captain Bobby Trivigno (NYR) had a very compelling case himself. This was one of the more wide-open years for the award in its history and no decisions are easy. Just because I don’t agree with the final three doesn’t mean I don’t think any of the finalists aren’t incredibly deserving of college hockey’s top individual prize.

Pearson’s murky future: This storyline is one that you would hope does not overshadow the on-ice component, but it is one you simply cannot ignore. Michigan head coach Mel Pearson does not yet have a contract beyond this season which is a curious position to be in when you’ve got one of the elite teams in the country with more top-end recruits coming. But it’s quite obviously tied to the fact that there is an ongoing investigation into a number of allegations against Pearson and director of hockey operations Rick Bancroft, as detailed by MLive.com reporter Samuel Dodge.

Allegations include deception regarding COVID close contacts ahead of last year’s NCAA tournament which Michigan ultimately had to drop out of due to positive tests at the regional site. There were also more serious allegations of a toxic work environment for female employees and that there was retaliation against a student athlete for raising concerns about the program.

The investigation is not yet finished and Pearson has obviously continued to coach the team.

Connor Earegood of The Michigan Daily has done some very important work and asked the tough questions of the head coach this week. Pearson has downplayed any notion that his job is in jeopardy and has maintained his feeling that the investigation will clear him. However, Earegood reports that should Pearson either resign or not have his contract renewed, the investigation could be suspended and its findings may never be known. However, this investigation has been ongoing since late October and the University strives to conclude these matters within 180 days, which would be April 26, as Earegood reports. One way or another we’re going to have an answer relatively soon.

This could be a distraction for the team, but I doubt it. The players don’t need much extra motivation now at this time of the season. The allegations that are being investigated aren’t going to cause them to vacate games or to scrub record books. It pretty much has nothing to do with the current team. All they have to do is play and whatever happens next happens. What a bizarre situation, though.

Transfer portal forces everyone to adapt

The transfer portal is bustling currently with a lot of players. Some have already gone in and found new teams, while others continue to mull their options. Every day we hear about new players going through the portal to find new places to play.

The portal has become part of college athletics in a major way, much to the chagrin of coaches who now have to re-recruit their players to stay in some cases. It makes it awfully difficult to build a roster and know what you’re going to have in a given season. I am sympathetic to that. It’s hard enough to do the job and it makes it that much harder, but it’s also part of the game now and if you don’t adapt with it, you’ll be left behind.

I may be in the minority on this, but I am absolutely pro-transfer portal. The freedom of movement that players are allowed will keep more players in college hockey as opposed to seeking other options in major junior. On top of that, the previous setup was far too punitive to the players who had legitimate reasons to want a different opportunity. Sitting out a year did no one any good.

There are going to be a lot of players that had legitimate reasons to transfer — bad fit, clashing with teammates or coaches, the player made a change academically that makes the school a bad fit. There’s lesser reasons, too, as simple as a lack of playing time or opportunity, perception that the coach doesn’t like you, etc. However, players still deserve a chance to dictate their own path. This gives them a little more power and a little more ownership.

If a player doesn’t want to be in the program, then they’re not much good to the program anyway.

Now, I do have concern that this is going to make it a little too easy to run from adversity, like not getting power play time or not playing a more prominent role. But the players that embrace the challenge of those situations and work to change them before seeking out the portal will be rewarded more in the end. Those players will still exist and they’ll make their respective programs better.

Where things are going to get a little nutty is on the goaltending front. We’ve seen the exact same thing in college football with quarterbacks filtering through the portal like crazy. But those players are in a very different situation from the rest of their teammates. In most college teams, there’s only going to be one guy that gets the lion share of net time. If you don’t beat out that one guy, you don’t have much recourse unless there is an injury.

For example, T.J. Semptimphelter was slotted behind Devon Levi (BUF) at Northeastern. Unless Levi was injured or away at the Olympics, Semptimphelter didn’t play. But when he did play, he showed starter upside. Levi is opting to return to school next season, so Semptimphelter went into the portal and now will have a chance to compete for the starting goalie job at Arizona State. The dynamics of his situation changed, so he changed his situation. I don’t mind that even though it means Northeastern has to figure out who slots in behind Levi on shorter notice.

The curse of the portal can also be a blessing. Just as soon as a team loses a player from to the portal, they can bring one back through the portal. They can fill holes that were left by players that departed early for pro deals. There are ways to make it all even out.

I understand the frustration from coaches and fans alike. It is not a fun thing to deal with, losing players so easily, but there are so many other things that don’t benefit the athletes in college sports. This is one where they get a little more agency in their own futures and that’s why I’m ultimately fine with it.

Notable portal entries:

Here is a look at some of the players that have entered the portal and where they’re confirmed to be going or what I’ve heard potential destinations could be from industry sources. This only scratches the surface of players currently in the portal and we expect to see a few more enter the portal after the men’s Frozen Four. There could even be a few from some of the teams participating, so stay tuned.

• Ty Smilanic, C/W (MTL): Quinnipiac — Minnesota State, Denver and Boston College are among teams believed to be under consideration for his next stop.

• Josh Nodler, C (CGY): Michigan State — Expected to commit to UMass

• Connor Kelley, D (CHI): Minnesota Duluth — Expected to commit to Providence

• Tomas Mazura, RW (EDM): Providence to St. Lawrence (confirmed)

• Slava Demin, D (CHI): UMass to TBD

• T.J. Semptimphelter, G: Northeastern to Arizona State (confirmed)

• Ty and Dylan Jackson, Fs: Northeastern to Arizona State (confirmed)

• Chayse Primeau, F: Omaha to Notre Dame (reported by Brad Schlossman)

• Ty Farmer, D: UMass to North Dakota (confirmed)

• Matthew Thiessen, G (VAN): Maine to Minnesota Duluth (confirmed)

• Gustavs Davis Grigals, G: Alaska to UMass-Lowell (reported by Mike McMahon)

• Kyle McClellan, G: Mercyhurst to Wisconsin (confirmed)

Stonehill College goes Division I

Stonehill College, a Catholic school in Easton, Mass., announced that its entire athletics department is going Division I in 2022-23, which includes men’s hockey and a brand new women’s hockey program. Stonehill will be an independent in men’s hockey starting next fall, following a path similar to that of LIU, though Stonehill at least had a Division II hockey team, so they’re not completely starting from scratch.

The addition of Stonehill, Lindenwood and Augustana in the coming years, as well as the elevation last season of St. Thomas and Long Island University the year before that, is showing that there are smaller schools that are making big-time investments in college hockey. How this shakes up the rest of the country remains to be seen.

Lindenwood and Augustana seem like natural fits for the CCHA eventually, while Stonehill could find some footing in Atlantic Hockey, especially if Long Island University is also granted membership. That still leaves Arizona State, the Alaska schools and Alabama Huntsville if it ever comes back as independents. Arizona State should see some movement once its in the new building, though.

There has long been talk of Illinois elevating its program to Division I, but the pandemic may have significantly altered those plans as nothing appears imminent or close on that front.

I don’t think we’re in for a massive realignment at this point, but the more college hockey grows, the more that will have to be considered. Perhaps a new conference is on the horizon, but I think we’ll have to wait and see who else joins the party before anything truly drastic happens.

News and notes from around college hockey

• Devon Levi (BUF) informed the Buffalo Sabres that he is going to return to Northeastern next season. Considering he’s only played one college season after missing most of last season due to injury, there’s plenty more time for him to develop. He just had one of the best seasons by a college goaltender in the history of Division I men’s hockey, statistically. But it’s one year. For a goaltender, swings happen and things can change. There’s no need to rush, especially with the Sabres having some young goalies in their system that can continue to develop without looking over their shoulder at Levi. And maybe by coming back next season, the Hobey Baker committee will give him more consideration next year. Seriously, I still can’t believe he’s not in the Hobey Hat Trick this year.

• Hockey East announced a new media rights deal that includes both NESN and ESPN. All of Hockey East teams’ home games — both men’s and women’s — will be available on ESPN+. There will also be three men’s games on ESPNU and the Hockey East women’s tournament championship will be aired on TV on one of ESPN’s networks. Hockey East joins the ECAC on a platform that many hockey fans across the country have signed up for to get NHL content. Going to hockey fans where they are is a smart move for the conference. To watch college hockey, you have to be on a streaming service. The conferences that are on stand-alone platforms are going to have a harder time expanding their audience, especially when many of them are cost prohibitive when people are already spending big on other streaming services for their other entertainment options. Also, seeing ESPN invest further in hockey by adding the ECAC, Hockey East and PHF on top of having the NHL, is a positive overall for the game.

• Notre Dame’s 2022-23 roster got quite a boost when senior defenseman Nick Leivermann (COL) announced he will return for a fifth season with the Irish. The former seventh-round pick really seemed to put it all together this season, logging significant minutes and putting up a career-best 27 points. He was sensational throughout the postseason as well, playing a key role in Notre Dame’s win over North Dakota in the first round. His sticking around, along with some key transfer portal adds, is great news for the Irish. Leivermann could sign with Colorado after next season or explore free agency and based on how he played this season, I think there’d be interest.

• University of Wisconsin athletics is apparently doing a postseason assessment of the hockey program. Todd Milewski of the Wisconsin State Journal reported that the assessment is not yet done even though the Badgers’ season ended a month ago. There’s no question this was a painfully disappointing year and Wisconsin may not rebound all that quickly. Head coach Tony Granato still has four years remaining on his current contract according to Milewski. I don’t think there will be a change in the immediate future, but the pressure appears to be ramping up in Madison.

• Noah Philp, who plays for the University of Alberta in USports, was signed to a one-year deal by the Edmonton Oilers Tuesday. The big center is the latest in a recent line of USports players to earn college free agent contracts. He was No. 10 on my college UFA rankings on DailyFaceoff.com after I got a tip that teams were looking at him. I did some video work on InStat and found a player that has the size and scoring ability that could give him a chance to find a role on an NHL team. It was wise of the Oilers not to let him leave the province, because other teams were definitely checking in on him.

• Riese Gaber and Ethan Frisch have announced plans to return to North Dakota next season. I think both had some pro interest already this season, but both are going to be able to enhance their value with a big season for the Fighting Hawks in 2022-23.

• Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey Max Strand (2022) announced his commitment to the University of Vermont. Strand had 78 points in 27 games for Roseau and is averaging a point per game with the NAHL’s St. Cloud Norsemen over 13 games.

Rand Pecknold to lead Team USA at 2023 World Juniors

As you read last week on Hockey Sense, Rand Pecknold was expected to be named head coach of Team USA for the 2023 World Juniors. This week, he was named the head coach for the 2023 tournament which does not yet have a site or schedule. But national teams have to get ready for that tournament nonetheless.

Joining Pecknold on the bench will be Western Michigan head coach Pat Ferschweiler, Dartmouth head coach Reid Cashman — both of whom were on NHL benches as assistants in the recent past. Tampa Bay Lightning scout Jared Waimon will work with USA’s goalies and Shawn Roche will be the video coach. Waimon, Cashman and Roche have all worked with Pecknold in the past at Quinnipiac.

I would not be surprised to see Ferschweiler leading a U.S. junior team in the near future as well. This is a first step towards that.

The most interesting thing about this bench is there is not one coach on it with WJC experience. I do find that a bit interesting and a bit curious, quite frankly, as the tournament is such a different animal than anything else in hockey. That said, you’ve got a good group of coaches with a variety of experiences that can help. Ferschweiler and Waimon have been part of Hlinka-Gretzky Cup tournament staffs and Pecknold has coached at the World Under-18s and World Championship as an assistant. Still, there’s nothing quite like the WJC.

I do like the idea of getting in some fresh eyes and seeing what happens, but I am still a little surprised there isn’t at least one assistant who has experienced the WJC up close.

Regardless of experience, the U.S. is very likely going to have to take a young team to the 2023 WJC. The 2004 birth year definitely has a bit more depth than the 2003 class, which means players that are on the current U.S. National U18 Team are going to have to play impact roles on the roster. What will make this process a little trickier still is that the U.S. is basically holding one camp for two junior teams.

I’m told close to 55 players will participate in the summer evaluation camp set to begin in late July. The final roster for the 2022 WJC will be selected out of that camp in Plymouth, Mich., while anyone still eligible for 2023 will get their first chance to make an impression on this coaching staff.

It’s an awkward process, but one that really doesn’t have much alternative at this point. There simply isn’t enough time. The question I have is, what if some of the younger guys prove they’re ready for the summer World Juniors and what if they knock off a player that was on the final roster over the winter? My guess is that the 2022 coaching staff is going to lean toward the guy they picked in December, but we won’t know until that final roster is named. Should be a very interesting process to follow.

2022 NHL Draft evals: Sam Rinzel in spotlight

Last Friday, dozens of NHL scouts including some scouting directors, assistant general managers and at least one NHL GM were in Cedar Rapids, Iowa to see the RoughRiders take on the Waterloo Black Hawks. More specifically, all of those power brokers and decision-makers were in Cedar Rapids for one player — Waterloo defenseman Sam Rinzel.

He’s been an interesting prospect to track this season because he’s split the season between the USHL and Chaska High School in Minnesota. The 6-foot-4, right-shot defenseman has a bunch of tools that leave you especially intrigued due to his size. His skating ability and overall footwork are very good. He has good touch on the puck and can make some nice plays around the ice, but those that have been watching him all season have seen enough warts in his game to wonder how high the ceiling really is.

In the game I watched, Rinzel showed glimpses of how special he can be. There was one exit where he was able to evade pressure with a subtle hip swivel, opening ice and then getting a good burst to get up ice quickly. Those are the plays that allow him to flirt with being picked in the first round.

Where he gets into trouble is that so often those types of plays don’t get past the first stage. He beats the first layer, but then doesn’t make the right decision with the puck to maximize that play. He skated into trouble an awful lot and then got outworked on a few pucks that led to chances for Cedar Rapids.

He is the kind of player I’m just not sure what to do with yet. The flashes he shows border on special. The rest you have to wonder if it can be overcome with experience, improved strength, maturity, etc. I think whoever ends up drafting Rinzel will be taking on substantial risk, but I also understand the enticement of what he can do. I think there’s a chance he could sneak into the late first, but I believe it’s much more likely he goes early on Day 2 of the draft. Either way, he’s an intriguing prospect who I’ll continue to follow quite closely.

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