NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Field: My best guess at the 16 teams that are in
NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Field: My best guess at the 16 teams that are in
Selection Show on ESPNU Sunday at 7 p.m. ET
The insanity of the 2020-21 men’s hockey season continued through the conference championships Saturday. Now we’re heading into a Selection Sunday unlike any in recent memory.
With the Pairwise rendered largely useless by the lack of a nonconference schedule for most teams, the men’s selection committee can use a variety of tools at its disposal to decide who should be in the tournament. The six autobids were decided last week. The rest of the field is up to the committee. Their decision will be revealed at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
There can be more subjectivity in this selection process, which could benefit a few teams on the bubble who may not have the most sterling résumés but can pass the eye test. The bad news for at least one bubble team is that St. Lawrence swooped in and stole its spot via autobid. The Saints defeated ECAC favorite Quinnipiac in overtime to secure a tournament bid with a 6-8-3 record. The committee’s decision to allow the ECAC an autobid despite only four teams playing this year, a number that dropped to three when Clarkson — a certain tournament team — abruptly announced its season was over in a statement light on details. SLU had to win two games to get in. They did it and based on the rules set, they’re in. UPDATE: SLU announced today that it had to withdraw from the tournament. Details below.
This very likely is going to cost the NCHC or Hockey East another team in the field.
There’s not a lot of easy decisions ahead, but I decided to play the role of the committee and at least pick the field. I’m not going to pick the brackets because my brain has already been twisted into a pretzel worse than the one Cal Naughton, Jr. faced in the hit movie Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby. There’s a pretzel in my head now.
However, my pals at both USCHO and College Hockey News, as well as Brad Schlossman at the Grand Forks Herald and Chris Dilks at SB Nation’s College Hockey blog took very reasoned looks at potential regional outlooks, so be sure to check those out if you’re especially curious about not only who should be in but where they should play.
Here’s my best guess at the field.
The Autobids
NCHC: North Dakota — Pound-for-pound the nation’s top team and the favorite to win it all. UND should be the No. 1 overall seed heading into the tournament.
Big Ten: Minnesota — Another likely No. 1 seed with a chance to make a deep run with good speed, depth and one of the nation’s best goaltenders in Jack LaFontaine (CAR)
Hockey East: UMass — After securing the first Hockey East tournament title in school history over inter-system rival UMass-Lowell, the Minutemen at least have a chance at earning a No. 1 seed in the tournament. Even if they end up as a No. 2, they’re a tough team for anyone to meet in the tournament.
ECAC: St. Lawrence — Credit to head coach Brent Brekke and goaltender Emil Zetterquist for helping St. Lawrence take advantage of the opportunity afforded them by this weird season. Beating Quinnipiac in their own building is now small thing. SLU likely ends up as the No. 16 seed in this tournament.
UPDATE: 4:21 p.m. CT: St. Lawrence has had to withdraw from the NCAA tournament after a positive case to Tier 1 personnel in the team this weekend. As a result, Quinnipiac gets the ECAC’s auto-bid. SLU head coach Brent Brekke announced Sunday that he had tested positive.
Quinnipiac was probably safe, but still on the bubble to make it. Now they won’t have to sweat the selection committee’s decision, though considering they just played a team with a confirmed positive case, even if it was only the head coach, we’ll have to see where this goes next.
WCHA: Lake Superior State — For the first time since 1996, the three-time national champion Lakers are in the tournament again. It’s been a long time coming, but wins over Bemidji State and Northern Michigan gave LSSU what could be the final WCHA tournament championship and took them from the bubble to the dance.
Atlantic Hockey: AIC — The class of Atlantic Hockey over the last three seasons, Eric Lang has established the Yellow Jackets as a mid-major power. There’s a chance AIC ends up as a three-seed in whatever regional they’re placed in with a 15-3-0 record, but my sense is they’ll still be a four-seed.
The Lock At-Large Bids
Boston College — The top team in Hockey East in the regular season, the Eagles still have a chance at being a No. 1 seed in the tournament despite their stunning HE semifinal defeat to UMass-Lowell. That game might be a catalyst for the Eagles to wake up and go on a run.
Wisconsin — The Badgers were the top team in the Big Ten during the regular season and likely end up a No. 2 seed in the national tournament. They’re going to have a challenging road, but with Hobey Baker favorite Cole Caufield in the lineup, they’re going to have a chance.
St. Cloud State — The Huskies fell just short in the NCHC tournament, but have plenty on their résumé to get them in, including a 17-10-0 record in the nation’s toughest conference.
Minnesota State — Despite a stunning 5-1 quarterfinal loss to Northern Michigan in the WCHA semifinals, the Mavericks are safe. They’re probably heading into the tournament as a No. 2 seed now despite their 20-4-1 mark.
The Probable At-Large Bids
Michigan — I think Michigan is an easy team to put in based on the eye test. They have a potent offensive attack, a great goaltender in Strauss Mann and they more than held their own in the Big Ten this year, posting a 15-10-1 record. I have little doubt the Big Ten gets three teams in.
Minnesota Duluth — The Bulldogs probably left a little too much to chance in the last few weeks, but I can’t see them not getting in with a 14-10-2 record in the NCHC and making it to the conference semifinals. One thing to note about UMD is that they played Miami six times this season, which boosts their record. Eye test also says they belong in the dance.
The Good Bubble
These are teams that I cannot call locks to make the tournament, but the ones I feel that have the best chance at an at-large bid.
Quinnipiac — Losing the ECAC tournament on home ice was a tough pill to swallow for the Bobcats. I still think they’re getting in, but it’s going to be close. They’re 17-7-4 with one of the nation’s top goaltenders in Keith Petruzzelli and a Hobey candidate in Odeen Tufto. But strength of schedule is not impressive, which hurts QU when they’re put up against putting in another Hockey East or NCHC entry. If the committee cares about east-west balance, I think they’re in. If they don’t worry about it that much, they’re in a more precarious spot. UPDATE: They’re in (see above update).
Boston University — BU gives the committee a lot to chew on. They’ve played just 15 games this season and are 10-4-1. Losing to UMass-Lowell in the quarterfinal of the Hockey East tournament was not helpful to their cause. A sweep of UMass and splits with BC and bubble team Providence help their cause in an otherwise light schedule. I think they’re going to get in, but not by much.
The Scary Bubble
If we assume both teams from the good bubble get in, that leaves just two slots in the tournament field for the teams below.
Denver — The more I looked into Denver, the more sense they made despite having a sub-.500 record. David Carle made a strong case for his team after they beat Omaha in the NCHC tournament and at first I dismissed it, but it made me take a longer look. If the committee is looking at both Denver and Omaha, those two teams played head-to-head five times this season. The Pioneers won the rubber match. The head-to-head series 3-2 Denver with one of Omaha’s wins coming in OT. If you’re going between those two teams, there are a lot of factors to consider, but I think Denver’s case in the head-to-head matchup is significant.
Omaha — The Mavs have a better overall record than DU at 14-10-1, but one gigantic caveat in that record is that Omaha played last-place Colorado College six times this season and won all six games. On the other hand, they also had to play No. 1 North Dakota six times, winning one of those games. This team has one of the weirdest schedules in the country in terms of balance. I really like the team and what Mike Gabinet has built there and the Mavericks absolutely deserve to be in the mix. Can the NCHC put five teams in, in this pandemic year? I’m not certain they can, but it also wouldn’t surprise me. Most of those teams got a significant number of games in with a lot of tough opponents and that won’t be overlooked.
Providence — Reaching the Hockey East semis and going 11-9-5 might be just enough to get Providence to squeak into the tournament, but it’s far from certain. Head-to-head with fellow HEA bubble team Lowell gives Providence a very small advantage having won 4-2 earlier in the season. For the committee it could come down to simply how many Hockey East teams deserve a spot? If they feel like they should have four in, which is about the traditional amount, I think the Friars are the choice.
UMass-Lowell — Their late season run has to keep them in the conversation, but finishing seventh in the Hockey East algorithm to figure out the final standings doesn’t help them very much. Coming close to winning the Hockey East tournament isn’t enough. If the committee adds another Hockey East team, it’s more likely to be Providence, but Lowell made a great case for itself in its run to the Hockey East final. They very nearly snuck away with an autobid.
Bemidji State — I don’t think the WCHA is going to get three teams in the tournament field, but I’m certain there’s going to be a long debate as to why not. Bemidji is 15-9-3 with good showings against both Minnesota State and Lake Superior State. They’re a good hockey club. I just can’t see the committee bending over backwards to get three WCHA teams in when there are other teams with tougher schedules that can be part of the tournament.
Bowling Green — Oh how I wanted to see the Falcons in this tournament. I think they have some top quality players led by Brandon Kruse and an offense that can score with the best of them. They have a 20-10-1 record, but losing two of three to Northern Michigan in the WCHA quarterfinals likely knocked them right out of the running. A good showing in the WCHA tournament may have given them the advantage.
UConn — The Huskies are getting closer, but I think they’re going to fall just short. They’re 10-11-2 with a loss to Providence in the Hockey East quarterfinal. If they win that game, there might be a difference in thinking and they switch spots with Providence in their bubble position.
My last, best guess
Here’s my final stab at the field. I wouldn’t pay as much attention to the numbers because I think there’s a lot of variance in how those are going to look, especially in the middle. The rankings will probably be dictated more by where the committee wants to place teams in the various regionals.
I’m going to spare you the continued pretzel-brain twisting and turning and just go with my final guess of the field. Also, just because I love a good hedge, I think there’s a chance Omaha gets in over either Providence or Denver.
With Providence in, you’ve got eight teams from the East and eight teams from the West. I’m not sure the committee is going to pay as much attention to that split, but I do think it matters.
There are a host of other factors at play, like trying to make it so teams don’t have to fly, placing regional hosts and a few others.
UPDATED: 4:21 p.m. ET
North Dakota
Minnesota
Boston College
UMass
Minnesota State
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Michigan
Boston University
Minnesota Duluth
Quinnipiac
Providence
Denver
Omaha
AIC
Lake Superior State
Last team out: Bemidji State
UPDATE: With St. Lawrence withdrawn, this shuffles things a bit, puts a fifth NCHC team in with Omaha replacing them. HOWEVER, I do think the committee will now more strongly consider Bemidji State and very well could add them as a No.4 seed who can easily bus to the Fargo regional. It is the path of least resistance, but I’m not sure it would be the right call over any one of bubble teams like Omaha, Denver or Providence which each played tougher schedules.
I’ll have a full reaction to the field with a preview on Monday. Also, don’t forget to subscribe to Talking Hockey Sense for this week’s episode that will be all about the men’s Frozen Four with my special guest, ESPN’s John Buccigross!
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