NHL reaches Olympics agreement; Projecting Team USA's long list

A look at 44 players most likely vying for spots on U.S. Men's Olympic Team

The NHL, NHLPA, IIHF and IOC have finally come to an agreement on allowing NHL players to participate in the 2022 Olympic Winter Games in Beijing. That’s great news for all involved, but especially the fans because if you watched the last Olympic hockey tournament… it wasn’t that fun. There were a lot of good stories, but there wasn’t a lot that we could learn from those games.

This time, we’ve got a chance to see best-on-best again and it just so happens that the U.S. has one of its deepest talent pools in recent memory. One of the pieces of news that came out of the announcement is that national governing bodies will not be able to hold orientation camps in person. They also have to submit their long lists of potential participants by Oct. 15. The NGBs like USA Hockey and Hockey Canada will have to submit those and essentially pick strictly from that list. The players on that list are subjected to World Anti-Doping Agency testing protocols, which is why they have to be submitted. Those lists can be especially long.

One thing that is important to note is that the Beijing hockey venues will have NHL ice surfaces. The IIHF is moving away from European sheets for its tournaments overall and we likely will not see another Olympics on anything other than NHL-regulation ice surfaces.

In addition to the announcement about the Olympics, USA Hockey filled out the rest of its coaching staff for the Olympics. Nashville Predators head coach John Hynes, former New York Rangers head coach David Quinn, Pittsburgh Penguins assistant Todd Rierden and former Olympic MVP Ryan Miller have joined Mike Sullivan on the bench. There’s a heavy Boston University presence with Sullivan, Quinn and Hynes all alums. Rierden is Sullivan’s top assistant with the Penguins and while his head coaching stint with Washington did not go well, he has been one of the most respected assistants in the game. On top of that, with Quinn currently not working for an NHL team, the coaching staff has one person that can put all of his focus for the time being into the Olympics. I really like the staff, especially having a player of Ryan Miller’s pedigree who has been there and done that, and can work with the young-ish goaltenders the U.S. will be leaning on.

To celebrate today’s news, I thought I’d come up with a 44-player long list for Team USA, separated into tiers, projecting who look like locks to make the final roster, who is probable to be on the final roster, those on the bubble for the final team and a group that are long-list longshots.

I think this gives us not only an idea of what the final roster could look like, but it highlights a number of players that I think USA’s management team and coaching staff will continue looking in on.

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Team USA Projected Long List

The Locks

These are players that, barring injury, will be on the final Olympic roster in my estimation.

Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: When his career is over, he will likely be known as the greatest American-born goal scorers of his or any generation. Goal scoring is at a premium in any international tournament and Matthews will be looked to for that.

Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago Blackhawks: Kane might be on the downside of his career, but he’s still an elite playmaker who puts up numbers. His performances at the last World Cup and 2014 Olympics were below his standards, but he also repped USA at two World Championships in the years since and dominated.

Adam Fox, RHD, New York Rangers: One of the smartest young players in the game today, there’s a zero percent chance the U.S. is leaving the reigning Norris Trophy winner off their roster. He can do a little bit of everything, too.

Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets: With a Vezina already in his rearview and playing at an all-star level with a weakened Winnipeg defense in front of him last season, Hellebuyck is the kind of goalie that can carry your team. Goaltending is hugely important and the U.S. has one of the better ones in the league right there.

Charlie McAvoy, RHD, Boston Bruins: McAvoy is a do-everything defenseman who can eat big minutes, play tough matchups and contribute. He captained the U.S. to a gold medal at the World Juniors in 2017 and since the day he joined the Boston Bruins, has been an impact defenseman.

Ryan McDonagh, LHD, Tampa Bay Lightning: The U.S. is going to have a young blue line, but having a stable veteran with two Stanley Cups and an Olympics under his belt helps. McDonagh does not produce at the level he used to, but he still can make plays and gives you steady defense.

Zach Werenski, LHD, Columbus Blue Jackets: He’ll be one of the highest paid defensemen in the NHL once his new deal with Columbus kicks in, but he’s also been one of the league’s more productive defensemen and most effective scorers from the back end with 65 goals, ranking sixth among all defensemen since his rookie season.

Jaccob Slavin, LHD, Carolina Hurricanes: One of the league’s very best shutdown defensemen, Slavin is one of the smartest players in the game today. The fact that he defends effectively as he does while barely ever committing penalties is hugely valuable in an international setting where special teams can make a huge difference in a short tournament.

John Gibson, G, Anaheim Ducks: The goaltending pool has thinned out more, but Gibson has been an excellent starter for Anaheim even though the team itself has taken a downward turn as they enter rebuild mode. Gibson sees a ton of pucks and still has managed to hold his team in games. He has a career .917 save percentage despite lower numbers the last two.

Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Calgary Flames: Tkachuk brings a little bit of everything and has the element of abrasiveness that the modern USA player doesn’t have as much of. More than that, though, Tkachuk is going to give you quality minutes, can fit into a variety of roles and has the skill to produce.

Jack Eichel, C, Buffalo Sabres: This comes with the gigantic caveat that we don’t know what Eichel’s future holds in terms of his health. His situation with Buffalo is unresolved as well. He’s obviously on the long list, but what will happen when it comes down to time to make a decision? Losing Eichel puts a strain on one of USA’s thinner positions.

Seth Jones, RHD, Chicago Blackhawks: I know the analytics have not looked good for Jones, but I’m interested in seeing how his move to Chicago impacts those numbers. At his best, he is one of the better two-way forces in the game with an ability to put up points and defend adequately. I still think he’s got great hockey left in him.

John Carlson, RHD, Washington Capitals: The U.S. has so many good right-shot defensemen, but Carlson is one of the elite producers among blueliners in the NHL. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t on a power play unit feeding some of USA’s elite snipers.

Probables for Beijing

These are players I think are very likely to make the Olympic team, but at least could find themselves with a little competition.

Quinn Hughes, LHD, Vancouver Canucks: There are so few players in the game that play the way Hughes does from the back end and he’d be USA’s most dynamic player on the back end. With some of the talent and two-way guys ahead of him, it might be tougher for him to get big minutes to produce, but he definitely helps your power play and gives you a transitional asset for counterattacks. Plus, you can pair him with any one of USA’s high-end right-shots and maximize his talent.

Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings: The U.S. center depth is something that could be in flux a bit with Jack Eichel’s situation being a little shaky. That said Larkin still has good two-way value and his speed is a separating factor. He can perform in a depth role for the U.S. where he gets good matchups and gives some secondary scoring.

Joe Pavelski, C, Dallas Stars: He’ll be the oldest guy on the team, but Pavelski still gets it done. He put Dallas on his back a few times last season and showed that he can still score at a high clip. He’d be a good candidate for the captain.

Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Calgary Flames: The dynamic Johnny Hockey can still make plays few else in the league can with his high-end puck skills. The U.S. has plenty of skill, but Gaudreau still has separation and deception ability that thrives on NHL ice more than it does on the big ice, which won’t be a factor this time around with the games on regular NHL sheets.

Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ottawa Senators: Size, abrasiveness, physicality and the skill to put up some points, one of the Tkachuks is going to have to play on the right side with the huge amount of natural LWs in USA’s player pool. I still think you’d like to have both of them to go up against Canada, especially with the appropriate amount of arrogance (in the best possible way) they play with.

Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets: I saw my pals at The Athletic left off Connor from their Olympic team and I just can’t see that happening. He has very little to no defensive value, but he has been one of the most consistent goal scorers in the NHL since he arrived. Three 30-goal seasons and 26 in last year’s shortened campaign. Gotta score to win.

Alex DeBrincat, LW/RW, Chicago Blackhawks: For the same reasons you want to look at Connor, DeBrincat has been a goal scorer and I think his defensive game has improved as well. He does a good job of getting under his opponents and stripping pucks. He also can play effectively on either wing and has some natural chemistry with Kane if you need to get either one going, which helps his case.

Jake Guentzel, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins: With Mike Sullivan on the bench, it’s hard to see him leaving off one of his own top producers. Guentzel has been a proven scorer who has been a proven postseason performer with his name on the Stanley Cup.

Brock Nelson, C, New York Islanders: I have been so slow to come to appreciate the level of talent Nelson has. His last two postseason performances were exceptional as he provided goal scoring and solid two-way play. He’s a sneaky 6-foot-3 and would give the U.S. center depth it desperately needs. Maybe he doesn’t play over Larkin or Pavelski, but he’s a guy I think should and probably will be in the mix. On top of his recent NHL exploits, he’s also been eager to play for Team USA at Worlds over the years and is always among their best players when he plays.

Beijing Bubble

These are players I think have a chance to make the roster, but may have a bit more to prove to get the shot.

J.T. Miller, C/W, Vancouver Canucks: A versatile forward with some jam and scoring pop, Miller has performed at a very high level in his two seasons with Vancouver. He also has a fair amount of high-level playoff experience. I think he could fit into a depth role pretty easily and be on one of USA’s penalty killing units.

Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks: One of the few natural right wingers in the mix, Boeser is a good scorer with outstanding work ethic on the ice. I do have some consistency concerns about him, though I thought he performed exceptionally well last season. He’s had some injury issues as well. I still think he’s a guy that gets a long look and ultimately makes the final roster.

Max Pacioretty, LW, Vegas Golden Knights: Always under-appreciated, Pacioretty remains an exceptional scoring winger. He averaged better than a point per game last season with Vegas and has been among their most reliable producers in the playoffs. My only hesitation with him is that there might be a few younger players like Kyle Connor or Alex DeBrincat that provide a bit more scoring pop at this point. But Pacioretty has some power elements that neither can claim with his size and strength.

Jeff Petry, RHD, Montreal Canadiens: With the rosters likely to feature 25 players, Petry has to be firmly in the mix to steal a spot here. He might not get the playing time that others will, but at 33, he’s defied aging curves, simply getting better and better and more and more productive with each passing year. He has four straight seasons with 40 or more points.

Blake Wheeler, RW, Winnipeg Jets: It’s hard to put Wheeler possibly on the outside when he’s such a producer still, but his defensive metrics were pretty poor last season and if he’s not going to be a top six guy for you, which I’m not sure he would be at this point, it’s harder to find a spot for him on the team. I could see him getting in there still, but I think the U.S. may have some different looks they’d prefer with some of the younger guys they have out there.

Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks: The third goalie spot for the U.S. is going to be a competition with Demko probably looking like the clubhouse leader, but he’s not the only one that will be in the mix. He had a solid season on a poor team last season, only his second full year in the NHL.

Long Listers in the Mix

These are players that I expect to be on USA Hockey’s long list, but that will have a lesser likelihood of making the final roster than the players listed above.

Torey Krug, LHD, St. Louis Blues: A talented playmaking defenseman who has thrice topped 50 points in his career could be an interesting option. Krug could be a possible depth defensemen and some coaches may prefer his experience level over some of the younger defensemen. I think he’s firmly in the mix to fight for a spot.

Cal Petersen, G, Los Angeles Kings: After getting 35 games with the Kings last season where he performed admirably in front of a bad team, Petersen was dominant at the men’s World Championship, posting a .953 save percentage as the U.S. took the bronze medal. He has a very good chance of unseating Demko as the projected No. 3 if he can establish quality starts with LA in the early goings of next season.

Anders Lee, LW, New York Islanders: After missing most of last season and the playoffs, Lee might be out of sight out of mind, but he’s got a versatile skillset and if the U.S. has any concerns about its size up front, he will help address that. I just think there are enough guys that have a bit more scoring pop that make it harder to find a spot for him. I still think the U.S. staff is going to want heaviness up front, though, so it keeps him in the mix.

T.J. Oshie, RW, Washington Capitals: The hero of the 2014 Olympics who left a lasting legacy with his shootout efforts, Oshie still is an extremely effective NHLer. He has good strength and some power in his game, plus he’s experienced winning a Stanley Cup. I think you’ve got to consider him for the long list, but less certain he unseats some of the other guys ahead.

Ryan Suter, LHD, Dallas Stars: Suter may be past his prime and still licking some wounds from a buyout, but he is still a quality left-shot defenseman who can log massive minutes, defend at a high level and contribute the odd point. I think you at least have to long list him if there’s concerns about the blue line and you’re looking for a steady hand. That said, I’m not sure how Suter would handle low minutes.

Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils: He’s starting to come into his own, showing great year-to-year improvement last season. With his speed and dynamic skill, a big first half would go a long way. I don’t think it’s very likely Hughes makes the final roster, but I would still anticipate him being on the long list just in case.

Joel Farabee, LW, Philadelphia Flyers: The young forward shows great versatility and last year proved he could produce at the NHL level. You never worry about his work ethic, either. He brings a consistency to every shift that coaches like. He’s a long-shot kind of guy, but maybe not as long as you’d think.

Cole Caufield, RW, Montreal Canadiens: With a lack of natural right wingers, there’s a case to be made for a player who has only had 30 NHL games to his name between regular season and playoffs last year. But what he showed is that he can score, even against the best of the best. I don’t think you write him in on the roster now, but he’s someone I don’t think you can afford to leave off the long list.

Jason Robertson, LW, Dallas Stars: After a breakout rookie season in which he was among the league’s top 5-on-5 scorers, you have to at least consider him for a spot. Robertson has the size to compete, but I could understand how some pace concerns might leave him lower on the call list.

Spencer Knight, G, Florida Panthers: The NHL sample is especially small, which is why I don’t think Knight will get serious consideration unless he pops off big in the first half of next season, but talent wise he belongs with the others. He’s one of the smartest young goalies I’ve been around and is unflappable. If USA wants to bring their most promising goalie prospect for the Olympic experience, it wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Bryan Rust, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins: Over the last two seasons, Rust has played his way into contention. The veteran forward has 98 points over his last 111 games and is a two-time Cup winner. Having Mike Sullivan on the bench helps his case, but based on what else is available, I don’t see a natural fit for him. That said, he’s good enough to be considered for the long list.

Jack Campbell, G, Toronto Maple Leafs: Campbell had a tremendous season with the Maple Leafs, reviving his career and suggesting that he has a realistic shot at being a team’s No. 1. His end of the playoffs last year was rough, but in the seven-game series against Montreal he did have a .934 save percentage. I wouldn’t write him off.

Chris Kreider, LW, New York Rangers: As a forward with size and speed, there could very well be a place for Kreider on this roster. It would likely be in a depth role. I think there are better finishers, which is why I think Kreider could be well on the outside, but there’s enough of a track record there to keep him in the mix.

Blake Coleman, C/W, Calgary Flames: After helping Tampa win two Stanley Cups as an integral depth player, Coleman is comfortable playing a role. He can also kill penalties, too. That can make him valuable to this team. The question is, does that bring enough value to bump someone out of a roster spot.

Brett Pesce, RHD, Carolina Hurricanes: There are so many good defensemen that I think Pesce is one of the guys that just gets caught in a numbers game. That said, he is a really good penalty killer and if you wanted to pair him and Slavin together as a potential shutdown pair, I could see a decent case for that. Just don’t do it at the sake of one of USA’s elite producing blueliners.

Kevin Hayes, C, Philadelphia Flyers: Hayes has size, can play center and has a little bit of two-way ability including experience on the PK. He was also a beast in his last postseason with the Flyers in 2019-20. I don’t know that he matches the profile of this team, but he has enough elements that make sense to put him on the long list.

Projected Long List Depth Chart

Here’s a look at how it breaks down by position, including where I’d project those players to play if they made the team. Odds are USA would take 14 forwards, eight defensemen and three goaltenders as I believe rosters will be 25 players for the event, though that has not yet been confirmed. Long lists can be longer than the one I made as well, so there very well could be and probably are more players in the mix than I have at this point.

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