2021 NHL Draft: News, notes from draft week; Risers, fallers; What to expect from Hockey Sense
2021 NHL Draft: News, notes from draft week; Risers, fallers; What to expect from Hockey Sense
Plus: Logan Mailloux update; Thoughts on TSN's final ranking; Hats off to Luke Prokop
It’s finally Draft Week and while this year has been unlike any other, my hope is that you’re going to experience the same level of draft coverage you come to expect from me. I’m really excited to get this going.
I wanted to touch base with my subscribers, both premium and free, to let you know what’s coming this week and also share some of the freshest news and notes I can offer from what I’ve been hearing in the lead up to the draft.
I also wanted to share a bunch of links to previous content that should hopefully help you better prepare as you sit down to watch the 2021 NHL Draft on July 23 and 24. There’s been a ton of draft content since I started this site and I wanted to have as much of the most recent stuff as I could fit in one place for easy access. Keep a link to this page handy.
Also, if you haven’t yet signed on to be a premium subscriber, it’s never too late to give it a shot. It only takes $6 for a monthly subscription and you’ll still get all of the draft analysis I can churn out over the two days of the draft and beyond. There is no commitment beyond that first month as you can cancel a monthly anytime. If you like what you’re seeing, though, you can also purchase an annual subscription for $54 to save three months worth of monthly fees.
Here’s just a sampling of what you can find on Hockey Sense regarding the 2021 NHL Draft so far:
Final Draft Rankings: 1-90 // 91-100, plus late-round sleepers to know
Draft class favorites, intriguing projects, potential value picks, buyer beware and more
Draft Class Superlatives: Best skater, best shot, best puck-handler, best hockey sense, etc.
Before I share what else I’ve got cooking for you this week, let’s take a look at some of the news and notes from around the draft and beyond.
Risers and fallers for 2021
Every year as the draft gets closer, the picture of where players might be going in the draft — not team specific but at least in terms of range — becomes a little clearer. I thought I’d share a little bit on information I’ve gathered from various sources and use my sense of things to determine which players are on the rise and which ones are trending down as we approach draft weekend.
Risers
Mason McTavish, C — In news that will surprise no one, Mason McTavish’s draft stock is at an all-time high. It really took off after the U18 World Championship, but he’s been trending up since he got on the ice this season. His offensive tools are exciting to teams, but they really love the mean streak he plays with on top of the defensive game. He’s No. 7 on my list, but I think there’s a better chance he goes in the top five of this draft. I’d personally be surprised if he gets past Columbus at this point, or if he’s even available for the Blue Jackets to select.
Matthew Coronato, LW — The Chicago Steel forward is looking more and more like a lock to go in the top 15 of this draft. He falls just outside of the general consensus top 12, but most won’t place him below No. 15. The production he had this year was no fluke and there more belief that Coronato’s 45-point year-to-year improvement in the USHL has sent him on an even more positive trend in his development. The Harvard-bound winger put up historic goal totals for a draft-eligible player in the USHL this year. This year has essentially been one big rise for Coronato who earned his status as a top-tier prospect with his performance from the moment this season started.
Jack Peart, D — Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey impressed quite a bit at both the high school and USHL levels this year. I thought he’d be looking at a mid-round pick, but it’s looking more like he won’t slip outside of the second round. Helping Fargo reach the Clark Cup final in the USHL, Peart played big minutes and helped his team’s offense a great deal from the back end. He generates a ton with his feet and passing ability, as well as getting a lot of pucks to the net. At 5-11, he might be below average size wise for a defenseman, but he plays a style NHL teams need their defensemen to play in this quicker NHL. I think there were some teams hoping he’d make it to the third round or so, but now I think there’s a longer line to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Samuel Helenius, C — It’s looking more likely Helenius will fall no lower than the second round in this draft. A 6-foot-6 center with hands, Helenius needs to improve his skating stride to maximize his game. That said, the late 2002 put up decent numbers in Finland and it seems like NHL teams are way higher on him than most of us in the public sphere are. You read the part about him being a 6-foot-6 center, right?
Colton Dach, C/W — The younger brother of 2019 No. 3 overall pick Kirby Dach, Colton has made a name for himself as a talented scorer in the WHL. He averaged a point per game for the Saskatoon blades and while there are concerns about his footspeed, his stock appears to be on the rise thanks to the physical elements and goal scoring in his game. He wasn’t part of Team Canada at the World U18s, so that prevented him a chance to showcase himself among other higher-end draft prospects. I have him No. 80 on my list, but it sounds more likely he could go late second or earlier in the third round this year as teams are intrigued by his potential as a project.
Haakon Hanelt, C — This is a name to keep in your back pocket. If Hanelt had been available to play in the World U18s, I’d bet we’d hear his name quite a bit more. The German forward spent this season in the DEL with Eisbaren Berlin and appeared in 22 games. He only had one goal, but made enough of an impression to suggest he will be selected, probably late. There’s not a ton of tape on him, but his name kept coming up in various conversations as the draft approached and he even got an honorable mention on Bob McKenzie’s list, which is detailed below.
Fallers
Aatu Räty, C/W: I’ve never been less sure that Räty will go in the first round than I am right now. There are certainly teams who may be willing to take a chance on him, but his rough season has scared a lot of scouts off. Even with the body of work including the 2019-20 season, fear is growing that he is a player that peaked early and he might not have a lot of room to grow his game. That’s a concern I’ve started to share to a certain point, but I still think it’s too early to know for sure. I believe there is a decent enough chance now that he slips into the second round. I doubt he’d last long there, but the downward trend seems to be continuing and may be more pronounced among scouts than I previously thought.
Fabian Lysell, LW: I keep hearing that teams haven’t been overly impressed with Lysell despite his notable speed and skill. There’s been some growing concern about his overall maturity and competitiveness. When Lysell was initially left off Sweden’s U20 camp roster, it was a signal that the Sweden national team program felt the same way despite his mostly impressive showing at U18 Worlds. That was a bit telling. Lysell is going to camp now as a replacement for William Eklund. His not being invited is not going to crater his stock, but he was a guy I thought for sure would be a top 20 pick and now I’m not so certain. I still think he’s a unique talent in this draft and it only takes one team to feel strongly enough about him in that top 20 range.
Nikita Chibrikov, LW — At one point viewed as the top Russian in this class, it looks like his future teammate Fyodor Svechkov is going to take over that designation. Chibrikov was nullified in the gold-medal game at the World U18s, where Canada was able to play him more physically. That’s where the cracks started to show a bit more and I think teams have some moderate concerns about what elements of his game will translate. I still think he’ll be a first-round choice, but it looks more likely he’ll be a late first.
Scott Morrow, D — I have heard from various sources that a few teams aren’t listing Morrow. The defenseman from Shattuck-St. Mary’s is headed to UMass next season, which should be good for his development, but there are many who feel he needs another year of junior before making the jump to Hockey East and playing for the defending national champion. His talent is notable, but NHL scouts wanted to see him play against tougher competition this year. There seems to be more to it than that, though, but have not gotten to the bottom of it. I think Morrow still could go in the second round, but I’m not sure how likely it is he ends up as a top-50 pick anymore.
Danila Klimovich, C — The post World U18 glow has worn off the Belarusian as teams drilled down on him a bit more. The fear is how much stock can you put into that short tournament when he spent the entire year playing in one of the weaker U20 leagues a prospect could play his pre-draft season in? The answer, not enough to warrant an early second-round selection. There is a greater expectation he will slip to the late second or possibly early third.
Kirill Kirsanov, D — A low-producing defenseman with some high-end mobility, Kirsanov’s numbers don’t inspire a lot of confidence. Apparently so much so that he’s looking more like a projected third-round or later pick. I think Kirsanov has an intriguing package of tools and maturity. What I’ve heard a lot on him is that scouts feel he has a lower ceiling and may not get a lot better than he is right now. I still like the player and think there’s a little more there, but it’s harder to make bets on defensemen with Kirsanov’s statistical profile before the third round.
Logan Mailloux requests not to be drafted
In a seemingly unprecedented move, defenseman Logan Mailloux is asking teams not to select him at the 2021 NHL Draft. This stems from news of his being charged and fined while playing in Sweden after photographing himself and a woman engaged in a sexual act and then sharing it among some teammates on Snapchat. The woman did not consent to being photographed. The charges against Mailloux were first reported by DailyFaceoff.com over the weekend.
Mailloux sent out a statement via Twitter Tuesday morning renouncing himself from the draft in order to have more time to demonstrate the maturity and character to “earn that privilege” of being drafted. Mailloux’s full statement:
The Athletic also reported on Tuesday that the woman in the photograph did not feel Mailloux had adequately apologized and has not forgiven him. That story came out around the same time as Mailloux made his announcement.
There was still a chance that Mailloux was going to be drafted this year despite the charge against him and it gaining wider attention in the media. He paid a fine in Sweden for the offense which closed the matter legally. That certainly doesn’t close the matter in the court of public opinion. There are scouts that have said to me that they thought a few teams still could take a chance on him. Others said their team was steering clear.
I do think this was an appropriate step for Mailloux to take assuming he uses the time to show he’s learned from his error and takes more appropriate steps to atone for it, the first of which should be a sincere apology to the victim. Skeptics will certainly view this as nothing more than a PR stunt. It’s going to be up to Mailloux to put his words into action.
The Mailloux situation also highlights the need for continued, concerted efforts to better educate players at all levels, but particularly at the junior, high school and college levels, about sexual misconduct. And not just in the context of what it will mean for their careers, but in how these acts impact the lives of the victims. This is not an isolated incident and players need to be more aware of their actions and how they impact others to prevent these things from happening. I’ve also heard from NHL team personnel that they are only going to continue strengthening the vetting process when it comes to the draft.
I don’t know what the future will hold for Mailloux, if teams will view his decision to remove himself from the draft as a positive step in this process or if it changes nothing for them over the course of the next year. Mailloux is expected to remain with the London Knights in the OHL next season. He will remain draft eligible in 2022 if unselected this year.
TSN’s Bob McKenzie unveils draft list
The gold standard in terms of the closest to predicting the outcome of the actual draft, Bob McKenzie’s annual draft list dropped on Monday morning. There were not many surprises. A lot of the players that I have listed as first-round talents were also listed on McKenzie’s first round, but I put together some notes on what Bob shared.
Owen Power can now officially be called the consensus No. 1 prospect with most outlets placing him No. 1, and all of McKenzie’s 10 scouts surveyed putting him No. 1. I think that debate was squashed at the Men’s World Championship.
McKenzie said four different players received votes as the No. 2 pick, with Matty Beniers scoring enough to get the nod. Simon Edvinsson, William Eklund and Mason McTavish also received votes to be the No. 2 pick. So there goes the rest of your consensus.
Simon Edvinsson at No. 3 was a moderate surprise for me, especially after the World U18s where I think concerns rose about how much Edvinsson didn’t rise to the occasion as a top-tier player. I still think he’s got so much work to do, but I also understand why teams have such a high opinion of him. He’s raw and there’s a player to be molded in the right situation.
I think the top 12 players on McKenzie’s list will be the top 12 picks in the draft, though I’m sure the order will change. The only thing that might disrupt that is the order of the goalies, which I don’t believe is set in stone between Jesper Wallstedt (No. 12 for TSN) and Sebastian Cossa (No. 15). Some teams have them flipped in their evals.
Aatu Räty came in at No. 28 and I think there’s a real possibility he slips out of the first round altogether. At one point viewed as the best prospect in this class, teams remain very concerned with how his game cratered this year and if there’s much upside left. He is going to be one of the most intriguing players to watch on Day 1, if he goes in the first or especially if he does not.
There was only one name that raised my eyebrows in the first round and that was Tyler Boucher, who was ranked No. 29 on McKenzie’s list. I’m a big believer in Boucher, but he only played 14 games this season and doesn’t have a strong history of high-level offensive production. I don’t know that he ultimately will land in the first round, but his hard-driving, forechecking style is going to speak to a lot of teams.
Logan Mailloux was surprisingly listed No. 35. McKenzie noted that it did not mean he would get drafted, but stated that was the range where scouts were projecting where he stood and that even though teams did not plan to select him, they still put him on their list. It’s fair to say that the likelihood of Mailloux going anywhere at all has significantly dropped in the 24 hours since TSN published the list.
One of the biggest distances between my list and Bob’s is Vincent Iorio, a right-shot defenseman for the Brandon Wheat Kings who put up light numbers this year despite having a pretty decent overall toolkit. I didn’t have enough confidence in the offense translating, which is a big reason I did not list him. He was 58th on McKenzie’s list.
The idea that this is a weak year for goalies held true on McKenzie’s list as well. Only four netminders were listed including Wallstedt, Cossa, Benjamin Gaudreau, and Tristan Lennox. We might see a late run on lesser-known goalies, particularly Europeans, but considering Gaudreau and Lennox barely played this year, where they go will be anyone’s guess. I suspect those two OHL goalies go no later than the fourth round.
This list is always fun to look at, at the late stage. There’s a lot I agree with the list on in terms of how the industry saw the class. I think it could still be a wild first round with a few teams going completely off the board for someone they really believe in, but we’re just going to have to wait and see.
As an aside, Bob was my very first guest on Talking Hockey Sense and we talked about the process he goes through to put this list together every year. Check it out here if you missed it.
Seattle decisions loom large over NHL Draft
There is still time for one gigantic monkey wrench thrown in the cranks of this draft and that’s what the Seattle Kraken are going to get from the rest of the NHL teams in terms of side deals. There are a ton of intriguing players available for the expansion draft, players that teams don’t want to lose. It sounds like Ron Francis is asking for very, very significant packages in order to steer clear from players, which means teams have many similar decisions to make between losing the player or losing draft capital. I think teams lost too much to the Vegas Golden Knights, but the situation so many are in with the flat cap, with players headed for LTIR and so many other things, they had tough decisions to make. League sources have indicated Francis is sticking to what he wants from other teams to steer clear of certain players.
I do not think Seattle’s only pick in the first round of this draft is going to be No. 2. When a team can collect picks, as I expect Seattle to be able to in perhaps a more limited way than Vegas did, it feels like it can change the whole balance of a draft. Even having a team like Columbus that has three first-rounders changes the whole dynamic. Those teams could be more apt to package for trade ups or trade downs, compiling more draft picks and knocking any pre-draft projections from people like me even further out of whack.
The problem is, we won’t know how much the dynamic has shifted until Wednesday night when the Seattle selections are announced. This shouldn’t have a huge impact on other teams as they’ll just go by their list to draft the best players available as they see them, but it adds a layer of intrigue to what was already going to be a wildly unpredictable first round and beyond. I can’t wait to see what this team comes up with after they know how many picks they’ll ultimately have.
I’ll have a full expansion draft reaction with a focus on how it pertains to the NHL Draft and I’m also holding my mock draft until Thursday. So stay tuned for that and subscribe now to get access to those two premium pieces.
Hats off to Luke Prokop
Luke Prokop, a 2020 third-round pick of the Nashville Predators, announced to the world on Monday that he is gay, with a tweet and a series of interviews within the hockey media landscape. He is the first player under an NHL contract to make such a pronouncement, which has historic implications.
One of the things that really stood out to me in all of the things that he said was this:
He has made a difference before he’s even played on NHL game.
The importance of Prokop’s decision to come out, as a player both drafted and signed into the NHL where there has never been an openly gay player on an active roster cannot be overstated. He’s doing this before he achieves his ultimate dream of reaching the NHL and there’s no guarantee Prokop is going to be an NHLer at this stage of his career. But he’s going to be playing without the burden of concern over a secret he should never have had to keep in the first place, which is a great personal victory for the 19-year-old blueliner.
Prokop sent a message to every kid who feels isolated and unwelcome that you can live your truth and still play the sport you love. The hockey community has shown an outpouring of support, from teams and players alike. Prokop also had incredible support from the Predators, Gary Bettman issued a statement released a statement in support on the league’s behalf as well. Prokop has opened doors that no one had ever attempted to try to pass through in the NHL and has received widespread praise and adoration from peers, fans and the league as a whole. While this feels momentous for the sport of hockey, it’s even better for Prokop who can freely live his truth and focus on being the best player and person he can be. It was a very inspiring day.
What’s coming next on Hockey Sense
I’ve got a lot of big plans for the NHL Draft and I hope you’ll join me for instant analysis and in-depth coverage throughout the week and into next.
Wednesday night: Instant Expansion Draft reaction with a focus on prospects and draft picks that went Seattle’s way and what it means for the 2021 NHL Draft
Thursday: Mock Draft 3.0, the final mock draft, will be available Thursday morning.
Thursday: Talking Hockey Sense Episode 18 — NHL Draft Preview
Friday (tentative): Draft Day update on what I’m hearing
NHL Draft Day 1 Coverage
Live pick-by-pick analysis, with summarized scouting reports and thoughts on team fit for each selection (Note: This particular piece will be available to all readers whether you have a subscription or not)
After the first-round is complete: first-round draft evals/grades, biggest surprises, biggest gambles, news, notes and other stray thoughts.
NHL Draft Day 2 Coverage
Pick-by-pick analysis for Round 2, highlights from subsequent rounds
Post draft: Full draft class evals featuring the top-three classes of 2021
Monday, July 26: Biggest draft steals, biggest head-scratchers and closing thoughts on this weird draft year
Next week
I’ll be at the World Junior Summer showcase in Plymouth, Mich., doing color commentary for all 11 games featuring U20 teams from the U.S., Sweden and Finland, which will include many recent draftees on the rosters. I’ll be covering that camp comprehensively on Hockey Sense as well. My hope is to get a few chats in with recent draftees to share with you here as well. Also, if you want to tune into those games, they’ll be available on HockeyTV.com.
So there’s an awful lot coming. Don’t miss any of it. Subscribe to Hockey Sense today and you’ll be getting great NHL Draft intel while also contributing to the health of this 100% subscriber supported media operation. Thanks for the support and I hope you enjoy the content!