Full First-Round Mock Draft 1.0: Owen Power to Sabres at No. 1; Matty Beniers to Kraken at No. 2

All 31 picks from the first round projected.

Thanks to the Draft Lottery setting the order for the first 15 picks, we’re getting some clarity on where things stand in terms of who picks when. We’re not any closer, though, to learning who goes where. That’s where I come in.

The Mock Draft is an age-old tradition in prospect media coverage, but since you’re all subscribers here, let’s be honest. None of us on the outside have any real clue what teams are going to do. We all have our sources, but when it comes to picks, you’re lucky to get even the slightest bread crumbs. Especially at this early stage.

Sometimes as we get closer to the draft, I’ll get more chatter from other scouts that think they have an idea of what this team or that team is going to do, but funnily enough they never say “Hey, Chris, I think we’re going to take Player X." It’s usually, “Hearing Team X met with Player Y four times” or “I know those guys from Team Y really are high on Player Z.” It’s more than nothing, but a lot of us are still guessing.

So hopefully these get a little closer to what actually goes down the closer we get to the draft, but it is a real crapshoot. And that’s never been more true than this year. I’ve never had a harder time completing a first-round mock. But I think I say that every year, which is the danger of experience. You learn more, and that sometimes means you overthink it more or think you know more. Then you realize very quickly that you don’t.

So with all of that honesty out of the way, here is my best guess at how the first round could go at this still-early stage of the process based on what I know about team tendencies, what I’ve heard from indirect sources and at times OUT OF THIN AIR.

For reference, here is my pre-lottery mock. Also, here’s the link to my Spring Draft Rankings, which will be updated to summer rankings and then final rankings in the very near future. And lastly, for more detail on the options the top three teams face with their picks, check out my Draft Lottery instant reaction from Wednesday night.

Also of note, the remaining order is determined by finish in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so since those are still ongoing, the order is obviously still in flux and I had to piece it together a little bit at the end. It’s all noted.

Alright, let’s get to it…

1. Buffalo Sabres: Owen Power, D, Michigan (NCAA)

Though the Buffalo Sabres have a super-talented left-shot defenseman already in Rasmus Dahlin, you can’t afford not to take the best player in the draft. Based on a lot of scouts I talk to, the general feeling among them is that the best player is Owen Power. You cannot have too many good defensemen. The Sabres are still rebuilding and defense is a position of weakness organizationally, even though they have some decent prospects in that mix. Unless Buffalo can find an enticing package to trade down, I don’t think you can do much better than Power, who is a 6-foot-5, mobile, heady blueliner who makes a lot of the right plays consistently. Not flashy, but effective. I went in a little more detail on the Sabres’ options at No. 1 in my instant reaction piece, which you can read here.

2. Seattle Kraken: Matty Beniers, C, Michigan (NCAA)

Assuming the Sabres go the route we think they will and the best defenseman is off the board, there’s little reason to go too far outside of the box with this one. Beniers is a two-way center with speed and enough skill to be a top-six contributor. Ron Francis said after the draft lottery to reporters that he likes to build his teams down the middle. Goalie, defense, center are always going to be priorities. When you’re in this range, the best bet is to go with the best two-way center in the draft this season. The Kraken don’t have to bring him in right away and maybe shouldn’t, to allow him to dominate at the NCAA level, but they’d have a potential core piece for their future club if they manage to select Beniers.

3. Anaheim Ducks: Dylan Guenther, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

With those two players off the board, I could see Anaheim going a number of different ways with this pick. However, I think Guenther may fit the style the team is looking for and the Ducks may already have the supporting talent to help prop up Guenther even further. He is not a play-driving wing, at least he hasn’t been in my viewings. He is, however, an elite finisher with tremendous offensive instincts and an ability to find the net. With Trevor Zegras at center, I wonder if the Ducks could bring in a suitable running mate for him by landing Guenther.

4. New Jersey Devils: Luke Hughes, D, U.S. National Under-18 Team (NTDP)

After getting Jack Hughes in 2019, landing in this range is pretty fortuitous for the Devils. I like the group of forwards they’re putting together, but there’s always going to be room for a play-driving, mobile, puck-moving defenseman who just  so happens to be the younger brother of the 2019 No. 1 pick. Luke Hughes is the tallest of the Hughes brothers, coming in at 6-2. He has a very similar style to Quinn in terms of his edge work and evasive skating. Luke opens up ice so well and can exploit those gaps. His hands aren’t quite as good as Quinn’s but he has really solid offensive instincts. It’s a nice sentimental pick, but it’s also the right value for the Devils, too. Luke Hughes is headed to Michigan next season, because if you haven’t heard, this is the Michigan Draft.

5. Columbus Blue Jackets: William Eklund, LW, Djugårdens (SHL)

The Jackets have plenty of organizational needs and Jarmo Kekalainen is about as unpredictable as any GM. Picking in this range, however, it would seem like Eklund has a very strong profile as a player that would intrigue Columbus here. The skill level Eklund possesses, as well as his incredible success in Sweden this season where he was the rookie of the year in the top pro league. I think there’s a good case for taking one of the defensemen here or even Mason McTavish, but I think the Jackets can maximize the value of this draft slot by landing Eklund if he is available here.

6. Detroit Red Wings: Jesper Wallstedt, G, Luleå (SHL)

Another wild card GM, Steve Yzerman didn’t come close to tipping his hand as to what he’s thinking in his post lottery press conference. The Wings could potentially add another franchise defenseman if they went with Edvinsson or Clarke. They could improve their center depth, too, with Mason McTavish or someone like that. But it’s very, very rare to be in a position to land a future starting goalie. Perhaps Detroit would gamble and hope for a goalie with their second first-round pick, but I don’t think one will be available. Wallstedt is the most credible option to be the goalie of the future and I wouldn’t blame Detroit for being bold and going to get the first goaltender on the board. Yzerman experienced the importance of finding the right goalie in the draft when he selected Andrei Vasilevskiy. Wallstedt is one of the rare goalie prospects that looks like he has star potential in net.

7. San Jose Sharks: Mason McTavish, C, Olten (Switzerland)

The Sharks have plenty of prospect pool needs and I could definitely see them going after one of the defensemen here, but Mason McTavish’s rise after his impressive showing at the World U18 Championship, at which the Sharks had a large contingent scouting, they can shore up their center position. McTavish has some grittiness to his game, but there’s plenty of skill and I think he might be one of the smartest forwards in this draft. He plays the game like a pro, has vision to make plays and has good defensive sense to make things difficult on the opposition. I could see all of that being attractive to the Sharks here.

8. Los Angeles Kings: Brandt Clarke, D, Nove Zamky (Slovakia)

I don’t know how likely it is for the defensemen to drop this far, but I don’t think these teams will let them pass by if they do sink past the top seven. Clarke may be the best offensive defenseman in the draft with his ability to make plays and his elite vision. His skating is the one thing that holds him back a bit, but I don’t think it’s going to make teams shy away too much. The Kings have a lot of great prospects up front, so it wouldn’t hurt to add a more dynamic element to their blue line with the right-shot Clarke.  

9. Vancouver Canucks: Simon Edvinsson, D, Frölunda (SHL)

I think the Canucks would be very happy if Edvinsson slipped this far. A slightly underwhelming World U18s has given some teams pause, but most still love the upside that comes with this 6-foot-5 mobile defenseman who has really good hands for a big man. Edvinsson is a bit of a project for a team though as there’s still a rawness to his game, which may be why he didn’t outright dominate at the U18s. He’s a good player with good skills and if he slips here, the Canucks might not have him in the mix for a year or two, but they would have one of the players with the highest ceiling in this draft class.

10. Ottawa Senators: Kent Johnson, C/W, Michigan (NCAA)

The biggest need in the Senators’ system is goaltender as they don’t really have a prospect that credibly projects as a No. 1 in net, but when you see the value on the board with a player like Johnson still available, it’d be hard to pass on. They already have some dynamic talents in the system, most notably Tim Stützle, but why stop there? Johnson is one of the best puck handlers in this draft and is a tremendous shot-pass threat. His playmaking skills could help maximize some of the other players in Ottawa’s system.

11. Chicago Blackhawks: Chaz Lucius, C, U.S. National Under-18 Team (NTDP)

A dynamic pivot who is one of the better goal scorers in this entire draft, Lucius averaged better than a goal-per-game in an injury shortened season. The Blackhawks have never been afraid to dip into the NTDP for a player and Lucius looks like one that fits where the Blackhawks are going as a team. With Kirby Dach and Lukas Reichel being picked in their last two drafts, Chicago could add yet another highly-skilled player with a proclivity for filling the net.

12. Calgary Flames: Cole Sillinger, C, Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL)

A Western Canadian kid who took his talents to the USHL for one season to make sure he got pre-draft reps, Sillinger has one of the most unique set of hand skills in this draft. His release is especially deceptive and allowed him to be a highly-productive scorer for Sioux Falls. The Flames are probably going to miss out on the run of defenseman and might as well see if they can nab another guy that has a propensity to fill the net.

13. Philadelphia Flyers: Fabian Lysell, LW, Luleå (SHL)

The Flyers need to get quicker as a group. Lysell can help them do that. He has dynamic quickness and is a brilliant player on the rush. Lysell can create with his feet and his hands to find and exploit lanes and make plays. The Flyers don’t have anyone quite like Lysell, who saw his profile raise with a great performance at the Men’s World U18 Championship where he had nine points in seven games for the bronze medal winners.

14. Dallas Stars: Nikita Chibrikov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)

After Jim Nill pulled out his earbuds in disappointment that the Stars didn’t get really, really lucky in the lottery, it would make sense to go after upside here. Chibrikov is one of the most skilled players still on the board at this point and the Stars have had some good success in recent years with Russian players making an impact on their roster. Chibrikov had 13 points for Russia at the U18 Worlds and was a difference-maker in every game.

15. New York Rangers: Matthew Coronato, RW, Chicago Steel (USHL)

I mentioned this in my pre-lottery mock draft, but the Rangers are well stocked with young talent. I think there’s a good case Coronato is both the best player available, but he’s also a player that won’t need a contract for a few years. He’s slated to attend Harvard and assuming their hockey program resumes next season as we expect it to, the Rangers can let him develop in the same training ground that produced Adam Fox. Coronato was the USHL’s leading goal scorer this season and has a great offensive skillset to go along with good competitiveness and drive.

16. St. Louis Blues: Brennan Othmann, LW, Olten (Switzerland)

The Blues could look defenseman here, but there’s a growing buzz about Othmann after his performance at the World U18s, leading him to rise up some charts. Othmann has a great shot and plays with energy. His skating is not amazing, but he has the vision and hockey sense to make plays.

17. Nashville Predators: Aatu Räty, C, Karpat (Liiga)

A polarizing prospect this year, the Preds could certainly bolster their prospect pool down the middle. Räty was at one point believed to be the best prospect in this draft, but slipped and didn’t really have a great chance to dig himself out of the hole. Despite the concerns about his performance this year, his skill set and overall game are worth taking a chance on in this otherwise shallow class. It’s a higher-risk pick, but I think the reward could be substantial if they can work with the player to get him back on track.

18. Edmonton Oilers: Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

I’ve heard a bit more that Cossa’s going to go pretty high in this draft, perhaps much higher than 18. Some feel he is a lottery pick. Based on the teams that were in the mix here, I think he could slip just far enough to have to walk across the hall from the Oil Kings dressing room to the Oilers. Cossa is a high-upside goaltender who has a 6-foot-6 frame and he’s probably one of the quickest towering goalies I’ve seen in some time. He’s going to need time and development, but the Oilers could finally land their goalie of the future. Cossa put up silly numbers in the short WHL season this year with a 17-1-1 record and .941 save percentage.

19. Detroit Red Wings (via Washington Capitals): Carson Lambos, D, Winnipeg ICE (WHL)

After taking the goaltender earlier,  the Red Wings can go with another upside pick. Lambos missed a chunk of the season and the U18 Worlds with health concerns, but he entered this season as one of the most highly-regarded defensemen in the draft. There’s not a huge body of work on Lambos from this season, though he did spend some time in Finland and got some games in before returning to Canada and only appeared in two WHL games. It’s a higher-risk, high-reward kind of pick that Yzerman almost never shies away from.

20. Minnesota Wild: Corson Ceulemans, D, Brooks Bandits (AJHL)

The Wild have been building a nice prospect pool these last few years and could bolster its defensive corps by nabbing Ceulemans here. The Wisconsin-bound defenseman has good size and is one of the better skating defensemen in this draft. A right-shot blueliner, with a good shot from the point and solid puck-moving skills gives him top-four upside. He’s got to play a few years of college, but with the Wild graduating some prospects to the NHL roster this year, they’re not going to be in a rush to a add him.

21. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Toronto): Xavier Bourgault, C, Shawinigan (QMJHL)

The Blue Jackets can up the dynamic element of their forward group by picking up Bourgault who has been a top scorer in the QMJHL over the last two seasons. He had 71 points in 63 games in 2019-20 and 40 in 29 this last season. He has a sturdy frame and good offensive instincts, which could translate into a solid middle-six role for him.

22. Minnesota Wild (via Pittsburgh Penguins): Isak Rosén, LW, Leksands (SHL)

After a standout performance at the Men’s World U18 Championship, Rosén’s draft stock is on the rise. He’s an especially fast forward with a heavy shot and good defensive instincts. He’s engaged in all three zones and his quickness would help the Wild continue to build on a team that’s starting to get faster as a group.

23. Florida Panthers: Sasha Pastujov, RW, U.S. National Under-18 Team (NTDP)

Wouldn’t it be nice to see the Panthers draft a Florida native with their top pick? Sure, but this is far from a sentimental pick. Pastujov’s high-end creativity and playmaking skills would fit in well with the kind of team Florida is building. He’s not a very good skater, but his brain operates an especially high level when it comes to producing offense. He led the NTDP in scoring this year and was the team’s top player at the World U18 Championship.

EDITOR’S NOTE: These teams are still alive in the postseason, so I kept them in the order as the standings currently sit, with the lower-seeded team standing in as the series loser. I’m not projecting a series loss for those teams.

24. Montreal Canadiens: Oskar Olausson, LW, HV71 (Sweden U20)

A winger with some heaviness and defensive responsibility, Olausson can impact the game in a litany of ways. His offensive numbers were muted at the pro level this year, but he laid waste to the U20 ranks this season. He was kind of a tweener, but had six points in 11 Allsvenskan games on loan, which was so important for his development. HV71 was relegated to the Allsvenskan for next season, which is where he should play and continue to develop.

25. New Jersey Devils (via New York Islanders): Zachary Bolduc, C, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)

The Devils tapped the QMJHL for a great two-way center last year in Dawson Mercer and can go right back there to get a more skilled player in Bolduc. There’s more time for Bolduc to round out his game and become a more complete player. He missed the last portion of the QMJHL season with injury, but he has good size, is getting stronger and has two solid seasons of Q production to point to.

26. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Tampa Bay Lightning): Daniil Chayka, D, CSKA Moscow (KHL)

After finding forwards earlier in the draft, now is a good range to look to defense. With the expectation the team is going to trade Seth Jones, there’s no top-end blueliner in their system as a potential futre replacement. Chayka isn’t at the Jones level, but he’s a big, mobile defenseman who defends adequately and is starting to find his offensive game more. He spent all season in his native Russia, but would likely return to play in the OHL with Guelph next season. He’s a high-upside pick in this range.

27. Vegas Golden Knights: Fyodor Svechkov, C, Lada Togliatti (MHL)

The Golden Knights have tapped into Russia before and while Svechkov is under contract for a few years after being transferred to SKA St. Petersburg, the Golden Knights won’t have to waste a contract slot on him until 2023. He’s built to play Golden Knights style hockey as he is a hard-driving center with tremendous vision and hockey sense. He is one of my favorite players in this draft class and this could be a very solid stylistic fit for him with Vegas.

28. Winnipeg Jets: Francesco Pinelli, C, Jesenice (Slovenia)

Pinelli had a really strong World U18s playing in a secondary scoring role for Canada. He also held his own against men in Slovenia. His ability to be a play driver at a low-level pro league was definitely notable. The Jets have plenty of talent in their system at forward, but Pinelli has the skill set and drive to fit in with this group quite well.

29. Boston Bruins: Zachary L’Heureux, C, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

An impressively-skilled forward who plays on the edge and often crosses it, he could be a nice late-value pick if he slips this far. I’m not as big of a fan of L’Heureux as others because of some of the on-ice choices he made, leading to multiple suspensions this last season. It could cost him a spot in the first round, but when you’re a team like the Bruins and don’t have a ton of high-end talent in your prospect pool, take a shot at skill even if the player has a few warts on his game. I could see him walking in as one of the top prospects in Boston’s system currently.

30. Carolina Hurricanes: Samu Tuomaala, RW, Karpät (Finland U20)

The Hurricanes sure do like their Finns and they should like Tuomaala, who is a player that’s probably a few years away from being ready and can spend his time getting stronger and quicker in Finland. One of the best shots in this entire draft, you can never have enough goal scoring. Tuomaala was a point-per-game player in Finland’s U20 circuit, but then starred at the Men’s World U18s where he scored big goal after big goal. He also showed improved skating and transitional skill.

31. Colorado Avalanche: Mackie Samoskevich, LW, Chicago Steel (USHL)

The Avs don’t have any immediate needs. So why not pick a player that has some upside and will be going to school and they can just let him park there for two to three years? Samoskevich is probably the best option remaining on the board for that. He plays the game at a high pace and does a nice job driving the net with his powerful, quick skating. He looks like a good stylistic fit for what the Avs are trying to build.

Arizona Coyotes – Pick Forfeited

Biggest snub: Logan Stankoven, C/W, Kamloops Blazers

Yes, I’m doing snubs for the fake draft and that’s because I didn’t love the fact that I couldn’t find a spot in here for Logan Stankoven. The undersized forward has some excellent skill and a deadly release on his shot. He’s on the smaller side, but he scored a bunch in his short WHL stint and was solid for Canada in a secondary role at Worlds. He’s one guy that will be higher on my personal rankings, but that’s why the rankings and mock drafts are separate.

So there you have it, that’s Mock Draft 1.0. Expect more of these as we get closer to the draft and more information becomes available. Also, stay tuned for the refreshed draft rankings coming soon and if you’re a Supporting Subscriber, you should soon be getting an email gauging interest and available dates for our very first Virtual Happy Hour. I’m also trying to plan some things around the actual draft for some Supporting Subscriber interaction. Can’t wait to get all of that underway.

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