Hi Chris. New subscriber after listening to your great podcast. I'm a Sens guy and curious why you have Johnson ahead of Chaz Lucias. (sp?) A rival publication i respect said KJ has a ton of flash and talent but indicated he's more sizzle than steak. I can't remember details but general sense was that the analytics didn't support him being that great. Relatively low % of points were goals or primary assists from what i recall. I haven't heard anything negative about Chaz -- pure goal scorer and a centre, and the Sens need both. Also, Dorion seems to go for the lunch-pail character guys who are tough to play against, which is why everyone in fan base believes team covets McTavish but is unlikely to get him unless they trade up.
I have a second question. Gustafson was pretty great in NHL this year and is a second-round Pens pick, top goalie in world juniors so has a pedigree. And Sogaard looked amazing in AHL this year. Do you think either has the potential to be a legit #1?
Hey Peter. Thanks for signing up! Much appreciated. I am going to try to answer a chunk of this in more detail on my next podcast Q&A, because I would need a little time to give it full context.
As for your second question, I think both have a chance, but I don't feel super comfortable about either rounding out into a legit No. 1. Gustavsson's NHL numbers and his performances were pretty impressive and I think this was his best season as a pro. Those small NHL samples can be deceiving at times. We're not that far removed from him being a below-average AHL goalie. I want to see what he looks like with a normal summer of training, a normal season. I think he has a chance to be a good No. 2. As for Mads, it's still early in his pro career. Impressive seven-game stint in the AHL, but it's seven games and I know he played in Denmark some, too, which I don't have a great handle on what to make of his games there. If we see a continuation of those impressive performances into next season, then I'd feel more comfortable, but if we're looking at body of work, there's not enough there for me to justify saying with any sort of confidence there's locks to be No. 1 guys at this point. I'll answer that Johnson-Lucius question in greater detail on the pod. Thanks a ton for subscribing and for the great questions!
Great answer on the goalies and i would agree -- not a lot of convincing material to go on. And Sens fans know better than anyone about how a mediocre goalie, the Hamburglar, can be lights out for a remarkable length of time and then it just vanishes. I'm guessing the truly elite goalies are always good or great at every level.
question about the Kings - you have them taking B. Clarke who is a right shot D... they already have a lot of RD prospects such as Spence, Faber, Grans and Durzi, plus Doughty/Roy/Walker on the roster. Do you think this would influence them to pass on a RD in favor of a left shooting D or a winger instead?
I don't get the sense that the Kings care much about which way a player shoots so much as the quality of the prospect. You take Brandt Clarke, who might be the most offensively talented defenseman in this draft, and you add something to your group that you don't have. Durzi and Spence are very offensively gifted, but I would not put them in the same class as Clarke. Then Clarke adds a completely different dynamic from Faber and Grans in terms of style. As for the guys on the NHL roster, Clarke isn't going to be a factor immediately anyway. It's a good question, but you can't skip on a player that is better than most of what you have in your right-shot D pool in terms of upside.
Thanks for the response. I see what you mean... so if they happen to have Edvinsson ranked a tier lower than clarke like you do, they would go with Clarke regardless of him being an RD vs. LD. I guess if they have them ranked right in the same tier, it would be interesting.
Pretty much. If they have Edvinsson higher on their list, they take him, if it's Clarke, they take him. They are always going to be a team that goes for the best player available on their board. They might have someone I'm not even thinking of there, too. But my sense is they're not going to shy away from the best player because they feel they have "enough" of that type of player already.
Hi Chris. New subscriber after listening to your great podcast. I'm a Sens guy and curious why you have Johnson ahead of Chaz Lucias. (sp?) A rival publication i respect said KJ has a ton of flash and talent but indicated he's more sizzle than steak. I can't remember details but general sense was that the analytics didn't support him being that great. Relatively low % of points were goals or primary assists from what i recall. I haven't heard anything negative about Chaz -- pure goal scorer and a centre, and the Sens need both. Also, Dorion seems to go for the lunch-pail character guys who are tough to play against, which is why everyone in fan base believes team covets McTavish but is unlikely to get him unless they trade up.
I have a second question. Gustafson was pretty great in NHL this year and is a second-round Pens pick, top goalie in world juniors so has a pedigree. And Sogaard looked amazing in AHL this year. Do you think either has the potential to be a legit #1?
Hey Peter. Thanks for signing up! Much appreciated. I am going to try to answer a chunk of this in more detail on my next podcast Q&A, because I would need a little time to give it full context.
As for your second question, I think both have a chance, but I don't feel super comfortable about either rounding out into a legit No. 1. Gustavsson's NHL numbers and his performances were pretty impressive and I think this was his best season as a pro. Those small NHL samples can be deceiving at times. We're not that far removed from him being a below-average AHL goalie. I want to see what he looks like with a normal summer of training, a normal season. I think he has a chance to be a good No. 2. As for Mads, it's still early in his pro career. Impressive seven-game stint in the AHL, but it's seven games and I know he played in Denmark some, too, which I don't have a great handle on what to make of his games there. If we see a continuation of those impressive performances into next season, then I'd feel more comfortable, but if we're looking at body of work, there's not enough there for me to justify saying with any sort of confidence there's locks to be No. 1 guys at this point. I'll answer that Johnson-Lucius question in greater detail on the pod. Thanks a ton for subscribing and for the great questions!
Great answer on the goalies and i would agree -- not a lot of convincing material to go on. And Sens fans know better than anyone about how a mediocre goalie, the Hamburglar, can be lights out for a remarkable length of time and then it just vanishes. I'm guessing the truly elite goalies are always good or great at every level.
question about the Kings - you have them taking B. Clarke who is a right shot D... they already have a lot of RD prospects such as Spence, Faber, Grans and Durzi, plus Doughty/Roy/Walker on the roster. Do you think this would influence them to pass on a RD in favor of a left shooting D or a winger instead?
I don't get the sense that the Kings care much about which way a player shoots so much as the quality of the prospect. You take Brandt Clarke, who might be the most offensively talented defenseman in this draft, and you add something to your group that you don't have. Durzi and Spence are very offensively gifted, but I would not put them in the same class as Clarke. Then Clarke adds a completely different dynamic from Faber and Grans in terms of style. As for the guys on the NHL roster, Clarke isn't going to be a factor immediately anyway. It's a good question, but you can't skip on a player that is better than most of what you have in your right-shot D pool in terms of upside.
Thanks for the response. I see what you mean... so if they happen to have Edvinsson ranked a tier lower than clarke like you do, they would go with Clarke regardless of him being an RD vs. LD. I guess if they have them ranked right in the same tier, it would be interesting.
Pretty much. If they have Edvinsson higher on their list, they take him, if it's Clarke, they take him. They are always going to be a team that goes for the best player available on their board. They might have someone I'm not even thinking of there, too. But my sense is they're not going to shy away from the best player because they feel they have "enough" of that type of player already.